TransLink ridership rebound reaches 82% of pre-pandemic volumes

99 B-Line bus (left) and SkyTrain Canada Line (right). (Kenneth Chan/Daily Hive)

As of the middle of December 2022, Metro Vancouver’s public transit ridership further recovered to 82% of pre-pandemic levels — a significant increase from 60% at the start of 2022, and the lows experienced earlier in the pandemic.

There is a wide range in ridership recovery between modes, with buses leading with a rebound of 84%, followed by SkyTrain Expo/Millennium lines at 81%, SeaBus at 75%, SkyTrain Canada Line at 74%, HandyDART at 74%, and West Coast Express at 43%.

In an update last week, TransLink states it was the first major public transit system in Canada and the United States to reach and sustain a ridership recovery of 80% normal. It now ranks fifth in Canada and the US for boardings and 24th for population, and boardings are now 60% higher than the public transit systems of Seattle and Portland combined. As well, Metro Vancouver boardings are now more than the entire Chicago area, which has three times more population.

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In fact, Metro Vancouver’s recovery to date is comparable to Transport in London, and higher than the Toronto Transit Commission, the New York City MTA, and the averages for Canada and the US.

Comparing TransLink ridership recovery with other Canada/USA systems. (TransLink)

Downtown Vancouver and the Central Broadway corridor continue to see by far the higher public transit ridership, and while recovery has been relatively strong, it has lagged behind other areas due to the continuation of semi-remote office work. But TransLink states an uptick in West Coast Express ridership late last year provides an example of evidence that in-office work is gradually returning.

Areas within Surrey, particularly its city centre, are leading the region’s ridership rebound.

TransLink ridership fluctuations:
- April 2020: 17% of pre-pandemic
- September 2020: 41% of pre-pandemic
- November 2020: 44% of pre-pandemic
- September 2021: 55% of pre-pandemic
- January 2022: 60% of pre-pandemic
- February 2022: 64.5% of pre-pandemic
- May 2022: 70% of pre-pandemic
- June 2022: 72% of pre-pandemic
- September 2022: 77% of pre-pandemic
- November 2022: “80%+” of pre-pandemic
- December 2022: 82% of pre-pandemic

As for what is in store for 2023, TransLink anticipates this will be the first year of “new normal” travel demand, with the pandemic now fading away. The pace of year-over-year regrowth of ridership is expected to plateau, with population growth, employment, and service levels returning as the primary factors in influencing ridership.

The public transit authority anticipates it will see a total of 221.2 million boardings in 2023 — a 14% increase from 2022. This will be equivalent to the annual volumes of 2015/2016, prior to a short period of substantial ridership growth between 2017 and 2019. TransLink reached a historic ridership high of 451 million boardings in 2019.

It is noted that there is a risk of “significant overcrowding” if ridership grows at a faster-than-expected rate or if it disproportionately grows on already bus routes. Efforts will be made to redistribute services to busier routes and busier periods of the day, based on the experienced demand.

Metro Vancouver public transit ridership recovery (TransLink)

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