Playoff preview: How the Blue Jays and Twins match up

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

For the third time in the last four seasons, the Toronto Blue Jays will play postseason baseball in October. For a while there, it looked like they may not make it, but after a roller coaster season, Toronto just barely squeaked into the postseason.

By reaching the 89-win plateau, the Blue Jays drew the final American League Wild Card spot and will travel to the Twin Cities to face the Minnesota Twins. This may have been the matchup Toronto wanted all along.

Although the Blue Jays won two more games than the Twins, Minnesota makes it into the postseason because they play in one of the weakest divisions in baseball, while Toronto plays in one of the toughest.

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Toronto is seeking its first postseason victory since 2016, while the Twins are riding an 0-18 losing streak in the playoffs dating back to 2004. One of these clubs will finally end their long playoff victory drought in this series.

Both teams took different paths to get to the playoffs, but these squads match up extremely closely. Here’s a breakdown on the pitching and hitting side between the Blue Jays and the Twins.

Evenly-matched starting pitching

Game 1: Pablo Lopez vs Kevin Gausman
Game 2: Sonny Gray vs Jose Berrios
Game 3: Joe Ryan vs Chris Bassitt (if necessary)

This is the one department where the Blue Jays and Twins are on even footing. The Twins and Blue Jays ranked second and third in baseball this season when it comes to starting pitcher ERAs, and these clubs rank one and two for strikeouts as well.

Three of the top five starting pitchers in the American League will see work in this series, with Kevin Gausman, Pablo Lopez, and Sonny Gray all pitching crucial games.

In the second tier of starting pitchers, Chris Bassitt, Joe Ryan, and Jose Berrios may be called upon of this Wild Card series goes the distance. Bassitt will probably pitch Game 2, and Ryan and Berrios would be on tap for Game 3.

Kevin Gausman faced the Twins twice this season and had one of his worst outings of the year back in June when he gave up six earned runs on seven hits against the Twins. In that game, Twins batters only swung and missed eight times total; the third fewest whiffs during a single game for Gausman in 2023.

There is a bit of intrigue with Berrios as he returns to the city where it all started for him in 2012 and where he played for six big league seasons before the Twins traded him to the Blue Jays at the 2021 trade deadline.

If you’re a fan of low-scoring, well-pitched games, this is absolutely the playoff series for you. Runs will likely be scarce for both teams, so expect close games to be played between the Jays and Twins.

Edge: Twins

Blue Jays hitters have underperformed

On paper, both teams had fairly solid lineups heading into Opening Day, but both underperformed at the plate this season. The Twins scored 4.8 runs per game (10th in baseball) while the Blue Jays scored 4.6 runs per game (tied for 14th in baseball and just below league average).

The 2023 Twins hit 233 home runs, the most they’ve collectively hit in a single season since 2019. The Blue Jays only tallied 188 total home runs, their lowest in a season since 2014 (not including the pandemic-shortened season in 2020).

Twins shortstop Carlos Correa should be in the lineup, but he’s missed the last two weeks with plantar fasciitis, and start centre fielder Byron Buxton is still out and doesn’t appear to be ready to return.

Blue Jays catcher Danny Jansen is still on the injured list nursing a fractured right finger. If they make it to the ALCS, it seems like Danny Jansen may return, but the team hasn’t revealed his timeline for return.

Edge: Twins

Blue Jays bullpen gets the edge

If there’s one area where the Blue Jays have an edge over the Twins, it’s the bullpen. Toronto’s 3.68 reliever ERA ranks eighth in MLB, while Minnesota’s 3.95 ERA ranks 15th overall.

The Twins’ group of relief pitchers are headlined by closer Jhoan Duran, Emilio Pagan, and Griffin Jax. The top end of the Blue Jays’ bullpen includes Jordan Romano, Jordan Hicks, and Erik Swanson.

Blue Jays relievers led MLB in saves converted percentage at 78%, compared to the Twins’ 58%. Toronto had the second-most holds in MLB this year, while Minnesota was 21st in that category.

The Blue Jays’ relief core faced a lot more high-pressure situations than Minnesota’s did during the regular season, which has prepared them well for this pressure cooker environment under the bright lights of October.

Edge: Blue Jays

Overall

Because the pitching is so good in this series and the bats have been disappointing for both teams, runs will be at a premium in this Wild Card series. The only saving grace for the Blue Jays is this entire series will be on the road, where they’ve scored 4.98 runs per game as opposed to 4.2 runs per game at home.

Toronto also averaged 1.27 home runs per game on the road compared to 1.05 home runs at Rogers Centre in 2023. The Twins perform almost exactly the same offensively whether they’re at Target Field or an away ballpark.

Baseball purists will probably really enjoy watching the Blue Jays and Twins at Target Field this week. It’s unlikely this will be a high-scoring affair, but playoff baseball often comes down to pitching and defence, and the Blue Jays are solid in both areas.

All they need is a little timely hitting from key cogs in their lineup to advance to the next round to face the Houston Astros. The Blue Jays-Twins series kicks off Tuesday afternoon at 4:38pm ET/1:38 pm PT in Minnesota.