Surrey primed to surpass Vancouver population in the very near future
The population of Vancouver could be surpassed by Surrey in the very near future, according to a new report.
New data from Rennie features some highlights around population growth and rental construction in Metro Vancouver.
Rennie says that the City of Vancouver is expected to experience much less population growth over the next decade than previously anticipated and that the latest forecast shows Vancouver’s population could be surpassed by Surrey by 2027.
That’s a lot sooner than the Metro Vancouver Regional District’s prediction of 2038.
The data comes from Rennie’s Fall 2025 landscape.
Rennie
While Vancouver currently has the largest population in Metro Vancouver, Rennie says the city is now “projected to add only the fourth-most number of people” over the next decade. As of the 2021 census, Vancouver has a population of around 662,248, while Surrey has a population of around 568,322.
There are also signs that the Metro Vancouver rental market is rebalancing, and that comes as the rental construction pipeline has hit a record high. New data from Rennie suggests there are over 18,000 purpose-built rental homes under construction, with over 75,000 units in planning.
“The data show a market that’s adjusting to new conditions,” said Ryan Berlin, head economist and vice president of intelligence at Rennie, in a release.
“Rental supply continues to expand, but the pace of demand is easing—a natural realignment after years of accelerated growth,” Rennie states.
Rennie predicts that most pre-construction homes would be delivered in 2030 and 2031, “if they all proceeded in typical fashion.”
While the Metro Vancouver construction pipeline is the largest on record, it comes as rental absorption and migration are moderating, “signalling a market that is re-balancing after years of rapid growth.”
Rennie says that affordability has reached its highest level since 2022, as has purchasing power in Metro Vancouver. Completed and unsold condo inventory doubled since 2022, “but remained steady through mid-2025 as the market absorbed new supply.”
Rennie also says that since 2022, the amount of completed and unsold inventory in Metro Vancouver has doubled three times, from 300 to over 2,600 as of the end of Q2 2025.
You can see all the data in Rennie’s report on its website.
Rentals.ca also recently published a report about how international students are impacting rent in Canada.
“Canada’s student rental market is cooling rapidly as new federal limits on international study permits take effect, according to new data from Rentals.ca. After several years of record-breaking demand and limited availability, student renters are now seeing lower prices and more options near major post-secondary institutions across the country,” the rental platform said.
“Rentals.ca data shows that cities with high international student enrolment, particularly in Ontario and British Columbia, are seeing the steepest rent declines,” it added.