British Columbia's population to reach nearly 8 million by 2046: forecast

Downtown Vancouver skyline, with the volcanic Mount Baker stratavolcano in the background. (EB Adventure Photography/Shutterstock)

If the trajectory currently forecast holds, British Columbia’s population will grow from 5.5 million in 2023 to 7.9 million by 2046.

This means that in just over a two-decade timespan, BC’s population will grow by up to 44%, according to the provincial government’s newly released 2024 BC Stats report today.

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A population of nearly eight million people is comparable to the current populations of Greater Toronto (roughly 7.0 million), New York City (8.5 million), the province of Quebec (almost 9.0 million), and Washington state (roughly 8.0 million).

The updated BC estimates take into account Statistics Canada’s data, which shows Canada’s population as a whole is aging, the birthrate is lower than the replacement level, and population growth depends on international immigration inflows. In recent years, temporary residents have led population growth, and their number is expected to continue increasing until 2030.

BC residents align with these national trends; British Columbians are older, on average, than the rest of Canada, and the province’s birthrate is lower, with the number of births in the province now lower than the number of deaths since 2021, marking the first time in BC’s history that natural population change has been negative.

As for the most recent indicators, from July 2022 to July 2023, BC’s population increased by 3%, marking the highest annual increase since 1974. As of last year, BC’s population is now made up of 8.2% non-permanent residents.

It is estimated international immigrants will fill 46% of the new jobs between 2024 and 2033. Long-term economic growth and the labour supply shortage due to Canada’s aging population are the federal government’s leading reasons for expanding its immigration targets.

In recent years, nearly all of BC’s population growth has come from international immigration, with the vast majority of this group settling in Metro Vancouver.

By 2046, the combined Lower Mainland/Southwest region — an area that includes not only Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, but also the Sea to Sky Corridor and the Sunshine Coast — will reach a population of 4.9 million, representing an increase of 51% compared to 2023.

“The above trends demonstrate that Canada and BC are anticipated to continue to grow and to have a more diverse population in the coming decades. Understanding the current trends and the projected future of the country and its populace will be key in addressing any societal challenges that may be faced as the result of continuing development and change,” reads the report.

Metro Vancouver’s population is expected to reach and exceed three million residents in 2024, and if the projections hold another one million people will be added to the region by 2041 for a total of four million residents.

By 2029, the City of Surrey will become BC’s most populated city when it reaches 785,619 residents — squeaking past Vancouver’s 780,075 residents. The gap led by Surrey will grow with each passing year afterward.

Surrey is also expected to become the first BC municipality to reach one million residents — by 2042. In the same year, Vancouver will trail behind at just over 936,000 residents.

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