Surrey's population could exceed Vancouver in 2038, becoming B.C.'s biggest city | Daily Hive

Surrey's population could exceed Vancouver in 2038, becoming B.C.'s most populated city

Long-term future skyline of Surrey City Centre. (Invest Surrey/Downtown Surrey BIA)

For nearly three decades, various projections have pegged Surrey to become British Columbia’s most populous city, surpassing the Metro Vancouver region’s namesake city of Vancouver.

Some previous forecasts put this date sometime in the 2010s or late in the 2020s.

Now, Metro Vancouver Regional District’s newly updated population growth forecast predicts Surrey will reach the milestone of surpassing Vancouver’s population in 2038.

As well, Surrey will also reach the milestone of growing to one million people in 2051 — the first municipality in British Columbia to hit seven digits in its population.

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These projections are based on the regional district’s new medium-growth scenario of population growth, which is deemed to be the baseline and the most likely scenario. The regional district last created an updated forecast in late 2024, but it was updated in Summer 2025 to better account for the federal government’s changes to immigration levels and non-permanent residents over the next few years.

Under the medium-growth forecast, Surrey’s population will rise from 701,000 in 2024 to 771,000 in 2031, 897,000 in 2041, and 1.005 million in 2051. In contrast, Vancouver’s population will grow from 758,000 in 2024 to 805,000 in 2031, 878,000 in 2041, and 953,000 in 2051.

This eventuality is to be expected, given that Surrey’s land area is 316 sq. km. — it is the largest municipal jurisdiction in Metro Vancouver based on geography. This immense space enables the potential for relatively flexible growth, with the majority of this area also permitted for urban growth under the regional district’s land use strategy.

Comparatively, the adjacent jurisdiction of Langley Township has a similarly sized land base of 307 sq. km., but its population growth forecast will be much more modest — rising from 163,000 in 2024 to 184,000 in 2031, 212,000 in 2041, and 238,000 in 2051. Unlike Surrey, the vast majority of Langley Township’s land area is not permitted for urban growth; only 19 per cent of Langley Township’s land can see urban development, while the overwhelming majority of 81 per cent is deemed rural and/or protected agricultural uses.

Land use in Metro Vancouver, Metro 2050. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)

Vancouver’s municipal jurisdiction spans just 115 sq. km. of land area or about one-third of Surrey.

Even if all of Metro Vancouver’s Burrard Peninsula sub-region jurisdictions were combined — Vancouver plus Burnaby (97 sq. km.), New Westminster (16 sq. km.), the University Endowment Lands (14 sq. km.), and the University of British Columbia campus (4 sq. km.) — it would still add up to only 246 sq. km or about 70 sq. km. shy of Surrey.

According to the regional district’s forecast, the Burrard Peninsula sub-region’s total population will rise from 1.184 million in 2024 to 1.273 million in 2031, 1.414 million in 2041, and 1.554 million in 2051.

The South of Fraser East sub-region entails Surrey, Langley Township, Langley City (10 sq. km.), White Rock (5 sq. km.), and Barnston Island (6 sq. km.). Together, they have a combined total land area of 644 sq. km. — more than two and a half times larger than the Burrard Peninsula sub-region.

However, Surrey’s municipal government has long lamented that it needs more investment from the provincial and federal governments to better handle not only its current growth, but also future growth. This includes more transportation infrastructure, hospital capacity, and proper school capacity that replaces the existing high dependency on portable structures.

Led by Surrey, the population of the South of Fraser East will grow from 924,000 in 2024 to 1.02 million in 2031, 1.181 million in 2041, and 1.321 million in 2051, which would still be a population smaller than the Burrard Peninsula sub-region.

Existing skyline (top) and long-term future skyline (bottom) of Surrey City Centre. (Invest Surrey/Downtown Surrey BIA)

2050 UBC Vancouver campus master plan. (UBC)

In terms of the jurisdictions with the highest percentage of growth, exponential population increases are expected for the University Endowment Lands, where the population will rise from 3,807 in 2024 to 10,000 by 2031, 18,400 by 2041, and 26,700 by 2051. The adjacent University of British Columbia campus will see its population rise from 31,000 in 2024 to 37,000 in 2031, 45,000 in 2041, and 52,000 in 2051.

The North Shore sub-region will see relatively modest growth — from 229,000 in 2024 to 286,000 in 2051.

Overall, the regional district is now projecting that Metro Vancouver as a whole will see its population grow from 3.124 million in 2024 to 3.378 million in 2031, 2.795 million in 2041, and 4.188 million in 2051.

Baseline forecast: Medium-growth scenario

metro vancouver population growth forecast medium 2025

Medium-growth forecast; Metro Vancouver population growth, September 2025. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)

Alternate forecast: Low-growth scenario

Low-growth forecast; Metro Vancouver population growth, September 2025. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)

Alternate forecast: High-growth scenario

metro vancouver population growth forecast high 2025

High-growth forecast; Metro Vancouver population growth, September 2025. (Metro Vancouver Regional District)

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