How much salary cap space do the Canucks actually have left?

This feels familiar.

After signing three noteworthy contracts on the opening day of NHL free agency, the Vancouver Canucks are once again over the salary cap for 2023.

At the beginning of June, the Canucks were the only team in the NHL that was above the salary cap. They got back under the cap with their massive buyout of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, which saved them $7.1 million heading into next season.

However, after deals for projected roster players Carson Soucy, Ian Cole, Teddy Blueger, and Matt Irwin added up to cost the Canucks a shade under $9 million in cap space, Vancouver now projects to be over the cap by $2.48 million, according to CapFriendly.

Canucks’ Pearson “will be ready for camp”

Patrik Allvin dropped a surprising announcement in regards to Tanner Pearson status during his post-free agency press conference.

“The indication I got from his agent and from our medical staff is that the hand is healed and Tanner is working really hard to be in his best shape and participate in training camp,” Allvin said.

His declaration comes as a surprise.

Tanner Pearson spoke to the media back in April about the debacle with his hand injury. While speaking to the media, his hand was visibly discoloured and he was still in a cast.

Regardless, the news is stellar for Pearson, who seemed more concerned about being able to live everyday life with his family.

It does add another wrinkle to the Canucks cap conundrum. Before this news, it was widely assumed that Pearson ($3.25 million average annual value) and defenceman Tucker Poolman ($2.5 million AAV) would end up on long-term injured reserve (LTIR).

Now, it appears as though Poolman will be the only Canuck who will begin the season on LTIR.

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How LTIR affects the Canucks cap space

LTIR is a complicated tool allowing teams to exceed the salary cap by a specified limit.

There are two ways of doing so, but the primary goal for the Canucks (or any NHL team) to be as close to the salary cap limit as possible by opening night, in order to maximize LTIR.

Last season, they were the first team in NHL history to do this perfectly.

Right now however, some maneuvering would have to be done in order for the Canucks to pull this off.

Looking at CapFriendly, there’s a couple moves the team could make to get back under the cap, including both Pearson and Poolman’s salaries.

Firstly, the Canucks could send fringe forwards Sheldon Dries and Jack Studnicka to the AHL. They could also drop Nils Aman and Vasily Podkolzin down to the minors as a paper transaction.

With these players going down to the minors, the Canucks can get within $3,333 of the salary cap limit with a little bit more tinkering, including having a couple of defencemen making above league minimum (Jack Rathbone and Akito Hirose) on the opening night roster.

Now, this is the goal for the Canucks, but they can begin the season as they are right now, $2.48 million over the cap.

It’s not ideal, but it’s possible.

The issue with this is that the Canucks could theoretically run the risk of having to trade or shake up their roster later in the season if they run out of space due to their “accruable cap space limit (ACSL).”

Here’s an example of why teams are better off optimizing LTIR by being under the cap to start the season.

There are moves the Canucks could make if they’re worried about exceeding their ACSL. For instance, if they waived Tyler Myers, a move that would free up $1.15 million of cap space, would any team claim him? Likely not.

Still, even though the Canucks theoretically have $2.48 million they can spend, the prudent, and most likely course, is having a roster like the one above on opening night, so that they can exceed the cap by almost all of Poolman’s $2.5 million contract.

That also means that they aren’t likely to make any more moves until October. Unless…

Could Canucks still make a trade?

There’s one big caveat in terms of the Canucks clearing space to add more free agents.

They could still make a trade.

The aforementioned Myers has popped up in trade rumours again over the last week or so, but Allvin recently shot down those rumours in his latest press conference.

What’s more likely however, is that the Canucks make a similar deal to the one that the Vegas Golden Knights and Pittsburgh Penguins just made.

During the draft, the Golden Knights traded Reilly Smith and his $5 million annual salary to the Pittsburgh Penguins for a third-round draft pick.

According to some analytical models, Smith and Canucks winger Conor Garland should theoretically have similar value.

And here is Kyle Dubas, folks! The Pittsburgh Penguins have acquired Reilly Smith from the Vegas Golden Knights in exchange for a 3rd round draft pick 2024. Smith is a TOP6 offensive winger & Stanley Cup champion of course. pic.twitter.com/4kJJUvezh7

— Andy & Rono (@ARHockeyStats) June 28, 2023

By the way, we're still waiting which team will acquire Conor Garland for just a late round draft pick. He had a bit worse year this last season, but he's still definitely 2nd line winger at worst in our eyes. Still only 27 years old & has cap hit under $5M. pic.twitter.com/jZBFPzZJop

— Andy & Rono (@ARHockeyStats) June 28, 2023

Garland’s $4.95 million salary is almost identical to Smith’s, and he’s also five years younger than the recent Cup champ.

If a trade like this is possible, then the Canucks would inch closer to being able to round out their roster with a couple of cheaper players.