Rathbone lighting up the AHL, but when will Canucks call him up?

Feb 9 2022, 6:29 pm

Jack Rathbone’s time in the AHL will surely soon come to an end.

Will he join some rarified company before he’s done?

After registering five points (one goal, four assists) during the Abbotsford Canucks’ last game, the 22-year-old defenceman is now up to 14 points in 15 games this season.

Rathbone now has 23 points (four goals, 19 assists) in 23 career AHL games.

He has the potential to join a small group of defenders if he can maintain a point-per-game (PPG) pace by the end of the season.

In the AHL’s 86 year history, only 17 defencemen under the age of 23 have maintained a point-per-game pace throughout the season, with a minimum of 20 games played.

Over the past 30 years, only seven defencemen have achieved that mark:

  • Ryan Murphy (2013-14, 1.0 PPG, 20 years old)
  • Justin Schultz (2012-13, 1.41 PPG, 22 years old)
  • Oliver Ekman-Larsson (2012-13, 1.05 PPG, 21 years old)
  • Chris Snell (1993-94, 1.28 PPG, 22 years old)
  • Milos Holan (1993-94, 1.07 PPG, 22 years old)
  • Philippe Boucher (1993-94, 1.03 PPG, 20 years old)
  • Sergei Zubov (1992-93, 1.2 PPG, 22 years old)

Even among those seven players, there’s a wide range of outcomes in terms of NHL success. There are stars like Zubov, top-four stalwarts like Ekman-Larsson, Schultz, and Boucher —Ā  along with guys who could never stick, like Snell, Holan, and Murphy.

No rush for Rathbone to join Canucks

It sounds like Bruce Boudreau isn’t rushing to get the Canucks’ top prospect in the lineup.

“I’ve heard a lot about him,”Ā  Boudreau told the media on Tuesday. “I’m sure there’s going to be an opportunity for him coming down the road here.

“The reason we didn’t call him up this time in my mind is because our strength is defence right now. Our strength is playing five-on-five against. If we have to eke games out 2-1 or 3-1, that’s what we’ll do… In the end, we’ll probably use him, because I’ve heard a lot of great things about him.”

The guys who were called up ahead of Rathbone, Ashton Sautner and Noah Juulsen, don’t project as anything more than depth defencemen.

While that might be frustrating based on the fact that Rathbone is more talented than both players, there shouldn’t be a rush to get Rathbone back to the NHL.

The Boston native has already seen his development hampered by the pandemic. He likely would have played at least one more season with Harvard in the NCAA, but signed with the Canucks after his University club cancelled their fall schedule for 2020-21.

Since signing with the Canucks, Rathbone has spent the last season and a half being shuffled between the AHL, NHL, taxi squad, injury list, and COVID protocol.

Perhaps some stability, even if it’s just for another month or so, is what’s best for Rathbone right now.

Digging into Rathbone’s AHL performance

The advanced metrics tracked tirelessly by Cody Severtson of AHL Nucks Harvest provides more insight into Rathbone’s performance this season.

Rathbone had just one goal and two secondary assists during his first 12 games of the season. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers for an offensive defenceman, and it’s probably another sign that there’s nothing with letting Rathbone get some seasoning in the minors for a bit longer.

He also had a negative even-strength goal differential (on the ice for 11 goals-for, 12 against), although that looks worse based on the fact that he’s been on the ice for a team-worst .913 save percentage at even-strength.

Rathbone’s 53.7% shot attempts-for differential is best among all defencemen in Abbotsford this season. One of the main things that stands out though is his shot attempts-against total.

He’s been on the ice for 47 shot attempts-against per 60 this season. In nine games with the Canucks, Rathbone was on the ice for 64 attempts-against.

While the numbers paint a positive picture of Rathbone’s defensive play, here’s what Severtson had to say about it.

“Rathbone’s work in the d-zone, it’s still a work in progress,” Severtson said. “I think he’s deceptively much stronger than his size would indicate.

“He’s really good at defending the rush because of his skating ā€” the kid can skate backward east-west better than some dudes can while skating forwards ā€” but he can be prone to getting burned on the outside by the elite skaters of the AHL.

“I have noticed him being incredibly conservative in his movements when his line is clearly hemmed into the zone chasing the puck.

“All in all, I think the defensive woes are a bit overstated, he’s no worse than some of the guys the Canucks have trotted out over the past few years.”

Rathbone’s future with the Canucks

With Quinn Hughes and Ekman-Larsson locked up long-term for the Canucks, it’s fair to wonder about Rathbone’s long-term future with the organization.

Well, based on his potential, and a lack of other competition on the left side, Rathbone should join the Canucks in short order.

Although traditional hockey logic suggests that the blue line shouldn’t be filled with smaller players, the Colorado Avalanche have helped dispel that myth by having guys such as Cale Makar and Samuel Girard in their top four.

Rathbone might be an intriguing trade chip, but the Canucks already lack talented prospects on the back end.

Plus, with Rathbone’s top-four potential, they’re unlikely to recoup surplus value in a trade.

While there’s nothing wrong with letting Rathbone marinate in the minors a little while longer, his permanent spot in the NHL is increasingly on the horizon as he rounds out his game in Abbotsford.

 

Trevor BeggsTrevor Beggs

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