Canucks should not give up on Elias Pettersson, here's why

Bob Frid-USA TODAY Sports

Out there on the darkest corners of the internet, a terrible idea is gaining traction among some Vancouver Canucks fans.

After scoring just 24 points through 46 games this season, a growing segment of the fanbase is open to trading Elias Pettersson just two seasons removed from a stellar 66-point campaign in 2019-20.

Pettersson has been something of a lightning rod for criticism this season, and for good reason. Over halfway into his fourth season, the 23-year-old has put up a paltry nine points at even strength, and has barely managed to produce at a half-point-per-game clip.

With that in mind, it’s perhaps unsurprising that a segment of the fanbase is calling for his head. It’s the internet we’re talking about, after all, and one could probably just as easily find a vocal minority of Canucks fans who believe the Earth is flat and the moon is made of cheese.

The idea appears to be migrating into the mainstream media as well, however, as TSN’s Craig Button indicated his openness to a Pettersson trade during his February 1 appearance on CHEK TV’s Donnie and Dhali:

“I know I am going to raise the eyebrows of Canucks fans, but you talk about J.T. Miller… where is Elias Pettersson at with respect to what’s he going to be and where his salary cap is? Could you ostensibly consider trading him to get a really good defenceman? Because if you want a really good defenceman, you’re not trading Conor Garland… you better start talking about Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser.”

With all due respect to Button, who is one of the best scouts in the public sphere, this is a tremendously bad idea. Obviously, a team as dreadful as the Canucks have been over the past eight years should be open to anything , but the likelihood that they would get a fair return for Pettersson at this juncture is so minuscule that it hardly merits consideration.

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While Pettersson’s underlying profile has taken a dip across the board, it hasn’t been enough to account for his poor performance this season. His on-ice expected goals per hour is down slightly from where it was over his last two seasons, but not nearly enough to account for such a drastic swing in production. Pettersson’s individual shot rate per hour is also down, but his on-ice shot rate is actually up by nearly the same total.

His two-way results are also virtually the same as where they’ve been at every other point in his career, so his lack of production hasn’t cost the Canucks nearly as much as one might think.

The biggest difference, by far, in Pettersson’s performance this season has been simple puck luck. The Canucks have posted a terrible on-ice shooting percentage at even-strength, and Pettersson has been no exception, sitting at an ugly 5.5% mark this season. For context, the lowest it’s been prior to this season was 9.9%, and the average for forwards this season sits just hair above 7.5%.

Meanwhile, Pettersson’s individual shooting percentage has also dipped from 16.5% in his career, to 12%. While it seems likely that Pettersson’s percentages were inflated over the early portion of his career, his production has been well below what one would expect based on the quantity and quality of shots the team generates with him on the ice. If the Canucks had converted at Pettersson’s career-average rate with him on the ice this season, he’d have been on the ice for at least twice as many goals at even strength and would likely have at least 8-10 more points to his name.

Down the wing, and a rocket from Elias Pettersson has the #Canucks up 1-0 on the Red Wings. pic.twitter.com/40w2GNihZc

— Sportsnet 650 (@Sportsnet650) November 7, 2018

It’s easy to forget just how impressive Pettersson was when he first entered the league and the elite company he was keeping heading into contract negotiations this summer. During the offseason, The Athletic Vancouver’s Thomas Drance mapped out a list of players Pettersson was keeping pace with after his first three seasons that indicated he had the potential to be a franchise-altering piece:

“Since the 1994-95 lockout only 17 players have produced at least 0.9 points per game in their first three NHL seasons while playing at least 100 games. It’s a list that includes Pettersson, and players like Ilya Kovalchuk, Peter Forsberg, Alex Ovechkin, Paul Kariya, Patrick Kane, Sidney Crosby, and Connor McDavid, among others…

“The lowest end player on the list is probably Paul Stastny, who has played over 1,000 NHL games and was a top-of-the-lineup calibre forward for over a decade.”

While it’s looking increasingly likely that Pettersson will be closer to the low end of that cohort, his upside alone should be reason enough for the Canucks to hold on to him. Even if Pettersson never improves on his rookie season and develops into more of a Stastny-type player, he’ll still be a rare enough piece to warrant keeping him on the roster. The Avs held on to Stastny until he reached his late 20s in spite of his inability to outperform his rookie season, and he’s been an effective player into his mid-30s. If that’s all Pettersson amounts to, he’s still not a player they should be willing to part with easily.

Today is a good day for a mix of Elias Pettersson doing his dekes and breaking people's ankles pic.twitter.com/FG3Mjcqkcq

— Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) October 22, 2020

Pettersson could also still return to his former glory, or even eclipse it. A number of players have experienced a decline in performance from the early point of their careers only to pick things up again a season or two later. After signing his second contract with the Toronto Maple Leafs, William Nylander sputtered out of the gate and scored a meagre 27 points in 54 games before roaring back to a career-high 31-goal clip the following season. There’s also Nathan MacKinnon, who after a strong 63-point rookie campaign posted three consecutive solid-but-unspectacular seasons before exploding to the 90+ point-per-season player he is today.

While Pettersson may never live up to the promise of his Calder Trophy-winning rookie season, it would also be unprecedented for his woes this season to continue for the rest of his career. Even if he never blossoms into the franchise player fans were hoping for, his value is at an all-time low right now, and moving him for cents on the dollar over one disappointing season would be huge mistake.