Raptors hold less than one-in-three chance of keeping their first-round draft pick

The Toronto Raptors haven’t exactly had a season to remember this year.

But with the final stretch of their season in full swing, all eyes are on what exactly fans will be looking for when it comes to this May’s NBA Draft Lottery.

Last February, Toronto traded their 2024 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs as part of the package to acquire centre Jakob Poeltl, with the condition it would transfer to 2025 should it end up in the top six of the NBA Draft Lottery.

With a record of 21-36 and sitting 12th in the Eastern Conference (and 24th overall), Toronto’s season hasn’t quite gone as they’d hoped. It’s a year that’s been more defined by a combined four franchise-altering trades, with a near-complete roster turnover from this time last year.

According to Tankathon.com, Toronto currently holds a 31.9% possibility of sending over the pick this season. That’s a decline from their odds of 46% on January 31, having moved up one spot in the overall league standings, and subsequently, one spot down in the NBA Draft Lottery odds.

Toronto fans found themselves paying attention to the lottery twice in recent years, landing with the fourth overall pick in 2021 and the 13th overall pick in 2023, picking Scottie Barnes and Gradey Dick, respectively.

The Raptors currently hold two other picks in the draft: a first-round pick acquired from the Indiana Pacers as part of the deal for Pascal Siakam, and a second-round pick — originally held by the Detroit Pistons — acquired on December 30 in a five-player trade with the New York Knicks.

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