Raptors currently have 46% chance of keeping first-round pick in NBA Draft

The Toronto Raptors are once again asking the most daunting question in sports: where, exactly, do they go from here?

Though Toronto is riding high from a Monday night win in Chicago, victories haven’t been all that common for the team as of late. They’re just 2-8 in their last 10 games, and sit 12th in the Eastern Conference with a record of 17-30.

But perhaps more importantly, they’re also keeping an eye out on the standings for the opposite reason: to see exactly what will happen with their first-round draft pick.

Last February, Toronto traded their 2024 first-round pick to the San Antonio Spurs as part of the package to acquire centre Jakob Poeltl, with the condition it would transfer to 2025 should it end up in the top six of the NBA Draft Lottery.

And with Toronto currently 25th in the league standings — the sixth-worst record in the league — it’s nearly even odds where their draft pick ends up next year. With the NBA Draft Lottery taking place on May 12, we’re still a few months out from finding out where exactly Toronto’s pick will land — and who will be making that selection.

According to Tankathon.com, the odds are currently 45.8% that Toronto will keep the pick, should the lottery be held based on today’s standings, and 54.2 that they flip it to San Antonio (if it falls below sixth).

But despite Toronto not exactly having the best run of things this season, Raptors president Masai Ujiri still backs the thought process behind the trade.

“When you trade a first-round pick for a starting centre in the NBA, in our business and for us, it’s good for now and for the future,” Ujiri said at a press conference on January 18. “Whether it’s a fit on our team or it’s something else in the future… we thought it was good value to get a starting centre for a pick.”

Should Toronto lose their pick, they’ve still got two other first-round picks this year as acquired from the Indiana Pacers in the trade for Pascal Siakam.