Metro Vancouver's population could reach 3 million in 2024

Skylines of downtown Vancouver (background) and Burnaby's Brentwood Town Centre (foreground). (EB Adventure Photography/Shutterstock)

Metro Vancouver, the third most populated urban region in Canada, could reach and exceed the major population milestone of three million residents in 2024.

Based on the population estimates made by the statisticians of the Government of British Columbia, Metro Vancouver’s 23 local jurisdictions and municipalities could end 2024 with a combined total population of 3.021 million residents. This is up from the estimated 2.935 million residents in 2023 and 2.842 million residents in 2022.

It took Metro Vancouver about 20 years to add one million additional residents from two million to three million residents, whereas it took about 30 years from the early 1970s to add one million residents to reach two million.

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If the projections hold, Metro Vancouver will grow by another one million residents over the next 17 years by 2041, when it reaches a population of four million.

The population of the Lower Mainland — the combined areas of the Metro Vancouver and Fraser Valley regions — is expected to grow to 3.389 million in 2024, including 368,118 residents within the Fraser Valley. It was just five years ago in 2019 the Lower Mainland’s population reached and exceeded three million residents.

In contrast, Greater Toronto reached three million residents in the early 1980s, when it overtook Greater Montreal’s population, and it is now nearing the seven million mark. According to Ontario’s provincial government, the City of Toronto alone is estimated to have reached three million residents in 2022.

Greater Montreal’s population is currently estimated at 4.3 million residents, and it reached three million residents in 1988.

In terms of land area, Metro Vancouver’s expanse of 2,790 sq km is far smaller than Canada’s two largest urban regions — 40% the area of Greater Toronto and 67% of Greater Montreal. Metro Vancouver is even smaller when the North Shore watersheds, regional parks, Agricultural Land Reserve, and other protected areas are taken out of the equation, as less than 900 sq km or about one-third of the region’s overall land area is available for urban development.

The geographical size of Metro Vancouver (TransLink jurisdiction) compared with the City of Toronto. (TransLink)

The geographical size of Metro Vancouver (TransLink jurisdiction) compared with Montreal Island. (TransLink)

Comparing the land area sizes of the City of Calgary, City of Edmonton, City of Toronto, City of Vancouver, and City of Montreal with the City of Ottawa. (City of Ottawa)

The city of Vancouver, Metro Vancouver’s current most populated municipality, is forecast to grow to 737,216 residents in 2024 — up from 722,014 in 2023. Over the same period, the population of BC’s second most populated jurisdiction, Surrey, will see its population climb from 659,126 to 684,485.

The provincial government’s forecast expects Surrey will become BC’s most populated city in 2029 when it reaches 785,619 residents — squeaking past Vancouver’s 780,075 residents. The gap led by Surrey will grow with each passing year afterward.

By 2042, the forecast shows Surrey will become the first BC municipality to reach one million residents, with a population of 1,000,519 expected by the end of that year. In contrast, Vancouver will be trailing behind at 936,245 in the same year.

Burnaby will remain BC’s third most populated city for the foreseeable future, growing from 278,505 in 2023 to 286,086 by 2024, and then reaching 309,965 in 2029 and 377,763 in 2042.

It should be noted that the City of Surrey’s land area of 316 sq km is roughly equivalent to the combined land area of the cities of Vancouver, Burnaby, and Coquitlam — a total of 318 sq km or the vast majority of the Burrard Peninsula’s land area. It is estimated the combined population of the cities of Vancouver, Burnaby, and Coquitlam will reach 1.198 million in 2024, 1.285 million in 2029, and 1.555 million in 2042.

BC’s population as a whole is estimated at 5.49 million in 2023, and it could grow to 5.65 million in 2024, 6.14 million in 2029, and 7.5 million in 2042. The provincial government’s population estimates were last updated in December 2023, and they take into account Statistics Canada census data and other provincial data inputs.

Of course, there are many variables that impact population growth, including immigration and interprovincial migration levels, housing affordability and supply, living costs, local economic growth, and macroeconomic considerations. The provincial government is also putting into motion a range of new housing policies that require municipal governments to accelerate the creation of new housing and encourage densification.

According to Statistics Canada, as of the latest census in 2021, BC had a population of five million, Metro Vancouver reached 2.64 million, Fraser Valley reached 296,000, City of Vancouver reached 662,000, City of Surrey reached 633,000, and City of Burnaby reached 249,000.

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