67% more listings needed to send Metro Vancouver housing to "balanced market"

Downtown Vancouver (Shutterstock)

Low supply and high demand continue to propel home prices in Metro Vancouver, according to a new market activity update by Royal LePage.

The aggregate home price within the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s (REBGV) jurisdiction jumped by 21% year-over-year to $1.221 million in the third quarter of 2021, with the median prices of single-family detached homes up by 23.4% to $1.65 million, and condominium homes up by 8.7% to $697,000.

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Within the city of Vancouver, over the same quarter, the aggregate home price went up by 12% year-over-year to $1.326 million, with median prices going up by 14% to $2.4 million for single-family detached homes, and 2.2% to $767,000 for condominium homes.

Only a surge in supply would be able to slow down the pace of the price increase by reducing the level of competition between prospective buyers. In fact, according to analysts, about 67% more available listings would be needed to trend conditions towards a “balanced market” — from the current availability of just under 9,000 listings to about 15,000 listings.

“Vancouver and the surrounding greater region remains firmly in a seller’s market. Although activity showed signs of slowing modestly in the summer and early days of September, the market has picked up again, now that families are back in their usual routines,” said Randy Ryalls, general manager of Royal LePage Sterling Realty, in a statement.

“With inventory as low as it is, competition remains tight in every segment of the market. Most listings receive multiple offers, and it’s very common to sell above the asking price.”

The firm is forecasting the aggregate price of a home within REBGV will go up by 15% in the fourth quarter of 2021, compared to the same quarter last year.

A surge in interprovincial migration to BC over the past year has been identified as a contributor towards growing housing prices. According to Statistics Canada, BC had the largest increase in interprovincial migration in 2020-21, with over 34,000 Canadians from out-of-province — the largest gain from interprovincial migration since 1993-94.

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