An international statistical competition predicts this year’s peak bloom for cherry blossoms in Vancouver will happen on April 5.
George Mason University’s Cherry Blossom Prediction Competition called on great math minds to use datasets on previous year’s blooms rates and weather to generate models that would predict when peak bloom would hit for four major cherry blossom destinations.
Although the entries varied in their prediction of peak blooms, the contest organizers combined the entries to find an overarching consensus.
This year’s prediction for Vancouver is slightly later than last year’s April 2 pick.
“While it is known that cherry trees tend to bloom earlier each year as climates warm, complex weather patterns make annual predictions extremely difficult,” contest organizers said.
Contestants who submitted their statistical models are eligible to win prizes of $5,000, and the work could help scientists better understand the impacts of climate change.
The contest also predicted peak blooms for Kyoto, Japan (April 4); Liestal-Weideli, Switzerland (April 5); and Washington, DC (March 28).
The contest thanked several universities as well as the Vancouver Cherry Blossom Festival for supporting it. This is the second annual iteration of the mathematical prediction contest and a winner has yet to be announced.