Provinces easing COVID-19 restrictions should expect a resurgence: federal modelling

All provinces easing their COVID-19 restrictions should anticipate another surge in cases, according to the latest federal modelling.

As more provinces move forward with a plan to “live with” COVID-19, federal modelling shows that COVID-19 cases could surge beyond previous peaks. However, the epidemiological models suggest that hospitalizations will remain lower than the previous wave.

“The good news is that current levels of immunity in the Canadian population are expected to reduce the impact of the Omicron infections going forward,” Chief Public Health Officer of Canada, Dr. Theresa Tam, said at a press conference on Friday.

You might also like:
• Health Canada authorizes use of Novavax COVID-19 vaccine
• Trudeau holds firm on vaccine mandates as provinces drop restrictions
• COVID-19 vaccines may need to be updated for Omicron: WHO

Public Health Agency of Canada

With high levels of vaccination and infection, it is anticipated that more of the population will have protection against severe outcomes of COVID-19, which is expected to drive down hospital admissions.

“It is expected that a smaller proportion will require hospital admission such that the impact on our healthcare system could be less severe, even with a large number of cases,” said Dr. Tam.

Public Health Agency of Canada

The federal model shows the stark difference in illness between unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals. Dr. Tam emphasized the importance of getting a full primary series and the booster dose. She added that more people in the 50 and up age groups need to get their boosters as they are at higher risk for more severe outcomes.

“As we transition out of the crisis phase, we can continue to rely on crucial tools for prevention, early detection and response including vaccines, testing, robust surveillance treatments and public health and healthcare,” said Dr. Tam.

Public Health Agency of Canada

Officials are closely monitoring trends in other countries and monitoring for any new variants that could develop. Dr. Tam said they are also monitoring the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among animal populations. In November, some deer in Ontario were found to be carrying the virus.

“Global collaboration remains as important as ever, including strengthening surveillance and research and ensuring access to vaccinations and treatments,” she said.

Canada COVID-19 Daily Epidemiology Update (Mon-Fri): https://t.co/oNd61txl1o

Latest CPHO COVID-19 statement: https://t.co/rVVLCqUP5H pic.twitter.com/drpPE3Zhor

— Dr. Theresa Tam (@CPHO_Canada) February 18, 2022