Vancouver Canucks have one more bold bet to make before Sept. 16
Ryan Johnson is unabashed and unafraid.
The new Vancouver Canucks GM has shown a willingness to make unorthodox decisions this offseason.
He’s rolling out an assistant coaching staff with no NHL experience. He traded Marcus Pettersson for a top-12-protected 2030 first-round pick (which could end up being an unprotected 2031 first-rounder), which is basically a player who’s 13 or 14 years old right now.
Hello, R.J. Celebrini.
Johnson also just made the bold move of locking up Zeev Buium on a hefty, eight-year extension.
While other GMs have made similar moves with young talent, this one feels a little bit different based on the rising salary cap and the ballooning of NHL contracts.
Could Johnson have one more bold move up his sleeve before training camp begins?
Buium’s contract extension was a priority for the Canucks based on the eight-year maximum extension disappearing after Sept. 15. Once the new NHL CBA kicks in on Sept. 16, the maximum length for re-signing players will be seven years.
The impending deadline does make you wonder: should Johnson consider locking up another young prospect from the Quinn Hughes trade?
Liam Ohgren was arguably the least valuable asset that Vancouver acquired in the Hughes deal. Despite being a 2022 first-round pick, he hadn’t registered a single point in 18 NHL games with the Minnesota Wild before joining the Canucks.
But when he came to Vancouver, he surprised people.
Even though the bar was low, Ohgren immediately became one of the Canucks most effective forwards.
The young winger quickly showed off his wheels and finishing ability, capped off with two goals, three points, and a shootout winner during his first four games as a Canuck.
After that, the 6-foot, 190-pound winger earned a larger, middle-six role on the team. His speed and ability to win battles in the corners soon differentiated him from the rest of the team.
By season’s end, Ohgren posted eight goals and 18 points in 51 games as a Canuck, good for a 12-goal, 28-point pace over a full 82 games.
Ohgren also posted 1.55 points-per-60, which ranked second among regulars in the Canucks lineup, and is in line with a low-end second-line scoring rate.
There were some imperfections in Ohgren’s game. Even on a bad Canucks team, the Canucks created less offence and allowed more chances against with Ohgren on the ice. Like many Canucks, he got caught chasing the game in his own end.
But clearly, there’s a lot to like about Ohgren, who pretty safely projects as a middle-six winger.
Now, should the Canucks sign him now, at a middle-six winger rate, hoping that he becomes more than that down the road?
The Pittsburgh Penguins made a shockingly similar bet on Ville Koivunen this offseason, signing the Finnish winger to an eight-year extension worth $4 million per season.
Koivunen is smaller, slower, and less productive than Ohgren is, even going back to their progression as prospects. However, he does have better possession numbers at the NHL level. Perhaps the fancy stats-loving Kyle Dubas relied on that when he signed Koivunen.
The important thing to remember with the Koivunen contract, however, is that Pittsburgh has a sneaky out clause.
Koivunen’s contract has signing bonuses in the first two years, making a buyout nonsensical.
But after those signing bonuses, a buyout would cost the Penguins next to nothing, with the most expensive years costing Pittsburgh $729,167, according to PuckPedia.
It’s a sneaky, smart blueprint that Vancouver could follow with Ohgren.
Could Liam Ohgren be the next Canucks player to sign long-term? (Sergei Belski/Imagn Images)
Because Ohgren is more established, an eight-year extension could conceivably cost up to $5 million per season. But if they structure the contract with signing bonuses during the first couple of seasons, there is a buyout escape hatch if Ohgren’s development goes south.
Although Ohgren suddenly turning into a lemon seems unlikely.
The Stockholm, Sweden native is already good enough to be a top-nine NHL forward. Heck, on this Canucks team, there’s a good chance he plays in the top-six.
Johnson has already shown a willingness to be aggressive. And making a bet on Ohgren could be another bold move that ends up paying off for the Canucks.
The Canucks do have three other extension-eligible restricted free agents in Jonathan LekkerimÀki, Aatu RÀty and defenceman Elias Pettersson. But, considering all of them spent time in the press box on a bad Canucks roster last season, Ohgren better fits the mould of a guy you take this type of swing on.
It’s fair to wonder if the Canucks, or any NHL team, should get in the habit of paying young players before they’ve earned it.
But in this case, the reward outweighs the risk for locking up Ohgren on an eight-year extension.