Ryan Johnson explains why Canucks went all-in on Zeev Buium
On a different timeline, there’s no chance Vancouver Canucks GM Ryan Johnson signs a contract like this.
Think about it. A 20-year-old defenceman with 76 games of NHL experience just signed the second-richest contract in Canucks history.
Hopefully it works out better than Vancouver’s most expensive contract of all time.
“I’ll be honest with you, if you had asked me five years ago if I would ever have considered something like this, my answer would have been immediately: no.”
“But I didn’t want to get caught up in some archaic thinking.”
Imagine that: a Canucks general manager who can adapt and grow with the times.
Still, Johnson’s decision to lock up Buium long-term carries an obvious risk. While the San Diego native is full of promise and potential, Buium clearly isn’t worth this contract based on his NHL career so far.
It’s a massive bet, and Johnson understands that. And, similar to contracts for defencemen like Lane Hutson and Jake Sanderson, the Canucks are betting on Buium reaching his top-pair potential.
“I wanted to get aggressive enough to know where the landscape is going,” Johnson said.
“The way some of these contracts are going out…[we felt that], if we could sit and really have a conversation about Zeev, the player, but also the person, and get to a number that, maybe, we felt that is admittedly overpaying right now, but being a really good deal down the road, we were aggressive in exploring that as much as we could to get something done.”
Zeev Buium flashed his high-end potential for Canucks fans last season. (Bob Frid/Imagn Images)
The aggressive contract for Buium may rub some the wrong way. It is a truckload of money for someone who hasn’t earned it yet.
“We know this contract isn’t about Zeev the player today or tomorrow. It’s where we see him in three, four, and five years,” Johnson said.
At that time, Buium will theoretically be entering his prime. And recent increases in the salary cap could dwarf the actual impact of his salary cap hit.
Next season, the NHL salary cap will be $113.5 million. Projections for 2028-29 have been forecasted at $123 million, a realistic bet based on more revenue from the addition of two regular season games, new upcoming TV deals, and the impending addition of at least one more expansion team.
Since the COVID-19-induced freeze, the salary cap has been rising between eight and nine per cent per year. If that continues at eight per cent annually, the NHL salary cap would be $132.5 million in 2029-30.
That would be year three of Buium’s extension, and he would turn 24 during that season. If that rise holds, his $9.38 million cap hit would account for just 7.1 per cent of the Canucks
A contract taking up 7.1 per cent of the $104 million salary cap equates to $7.36 million. Basically, Buium will be making Filip Hronek money early on in the deal. It’s also the equivalent of Noah Hanifin, Vince Dunn, or Brandt Clarke money.
Even if Buium isn’t the next Hutson or Sanderson, and becomes someone more like Dunn or Hanifin (a low-end first pair, high-end second pair guy), it’s still a fair deal for the Canucks.
“We’ve seen his journey over the years,” Johnson said. “He brought such energy and a leadership-type quality that you really don’t find in a lot of 20-year-olds, which is astonishing.
“[The contract] was a lot about his play and where we see he can go. This is now a journey, and we’re going to support him. There’s going to be adversity, and there’s going to be ups and downs. He’s going to make mistakes.”
“But we know we’re very confident in what he’s going to be as a player.”