Canada's World Cup hopes hinge on possible do-or-die game vs Australia
The watch times might not be convenient for fans back home, but Canada will be playing its biggest match at the FIFA Women’s World Cup in years on Monday.
And it’ll be facing one heck of an opposing crowd to do it.
Facing off against co-hosts Australia in Melbourne on Monday, July 31 with a kickoff time of 3 am PT/6 am ET, Canada is in control of its own destiny to advance to the Round of 16 at the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup.
The message from Canadian coach Bev Priestman to her players should be a pretty simple one: don’t lose.
A win or a draw against Australia sees Canada through to the Round of 16, and although Canada could advance with a loss on Monday, it’d get a whole lot messier — and it’d need a bit of help.
Canada currently sits second in Group B with four points, even on points and goal difference with leaders Nigeria but down 3-2 in the goals scored column through three games.
After drawing Canada 0-0 in its opening match, Nigeria took the top spot with a 3-2 victory on Thursday over the Australians, setting up a frantic final match day early next week.
Canada picked up its own victory on Wednesday with a 2-1 win over Ireland, but will still be eyeing a result against Australia to secure a spot without needing help.
Though Ireland is now unable to advance past the group stage, it’ll still have a chance to play spoiler should it pick up a victory over Nigeria in its final match, taking place at the same time as Canada-Australia. Should Canada lose against Australia, they’d need Ireland to win by a margin that would give Canada a greater goal differential than Nigeria.
In other words, a 1-0 Canada loss Monday could see Canada through if Ireland wins 2-0 or greater. The simplest path, of course, would be simply to win or draw, avoiding the need to run through.
Canada has gotten out of the group stage in three of its seven previous appearances at the FIFA Women’s World Cup, though it’s the first 32-team event in tournament history.
On paper, the Canadians have a better pedigree than the Australians, who are ranked 10th in the world, while Canada sits seventh. But rankings, of course, mean very little when it comes to the matches, with 40th ranked Nigeria the lowest out of the four teams in Group B yet leading the way so far.
Betting markets currently have the Australians favoured with +130 odds to Canada’s +195, while a draw is sitting at +230 on Draft Kings.
Australia is currently without its biggest star and team captain — 29-year-old Chelsea forward Sam Kerr — who has scored goals just about everywhere she’s played, winning seven different Golden Boot awards as top scorer across the Australian, American, and English domestic top flights. Kerr has missed the first two matches for the hosts, and her status remains unclear for Monday’s game against Canada.
Meanwhile, Canada could be without 40-year-old all-time leading scorer Christine Sinclair, who came off the bench Wednesday against Ireland.
“She looks like she was limping at the end there, so I’ll have to get an understanding of that and find out what comes next,” Priestman told reporters following the match.
Canadian fans will also have one eye on Group D, which is the foursome where Group B’s two opponents in the round of 16 will be plucked from. Currently, Denmark and England occupy spots one and two after one match day for that grouping, winning 1-0 over China and Haiti, respectfully.