Opinion: BC's new housing supply targets won't make a meaningful impact

Premier David Eby and BC Minister of Housing Ravi Kahlon. (Government of BC)

Written for Daily Hive Urbanized by Peter Waldkirch, who is a director with Abundant Housing Vancouver.

The provincial government recently released housing production targets for 10 cities in British Columbia. Unfortunately, their target for Vancouver is so low it not only won’t address our housing shortage crisis, but it could actually make it worse.

The BC NDP has been in power since 2017, and the housing crisis is worse than it’s ever been. The crisis has been brewing for decades, and there’s plenty of blame to go around, but after years in power we need action.

It’s good that the provincial government is getting more active in housing policy. It has become clear that total local control over land use doesn’t work. Local political incentives are misaligned. NIMBYs (Not In My Back Yard – people opposed to change in their neighbourhood) are wealthier, more home-owning, and more motivated to get involved in local politics than the overall population. This gives them disproportionate influence.

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By definition, though, NIMBYs already have stable housing. So local politicians end up catering to people who aren’t affected by the housing crisis. This leads to housing shortages, driving up prices and rents, and forcing people into long commutes.

We need to flip the script and start listening to people who are suffering from the housing crisis.

In places like California and New Zealand, senior levels of government are waking up to this broken system and are taking action. When Premier David Eby named Ravi Kahlon as his housing minister almost a year ago, they spoke about the need to learn from places like this. Housing advocates were encouraged that, finally, someone in power was starting to take the housing crisis seriously.

Then they released their housing targets. For Vancouver, they are requiring only 28,900 new homes over the next five years. This is only a small increase in housing production over recent years (around 7%). It’s barely an improvement over the status quo.

This is clearly wrong. Studies from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) suggest that Vancouver needs to at least triple housing production to restore affordability by 2030. And yet, the BC government is saying not much needs to change.

It is worrying that the government failed to realize how inadequate this target is. We need a government serious about standing up for renters, families, and young people who are struggling to find a home in Vancouver. It’s obvious the status quo is not okay. Every day, our friends, family, and neighbours are being pushed out of the city due to a shortage of housing.

These targets are so low they may actually harm efforts to address our housing shortage. After years of blaming foreigners, interest rates – anyone but ourselves – there’s finally an emerging consensus that the housing shortage is a root cause of the affordability crisis. By producing such a low and obviously wrong housing target for Vancouver, Premier Eby and Minister Kahlon have given ammunition to every NIMBY fighting to freeze their neighbourhood in amber.

Low targets that won’t solve the problem make it harder to enact the sold of bold reform Vancouver urgently needs. Right now, a wall of exclusionary zoning protects central neighbourhoods like West Point Grey and Shaughnessy from new neighbours. By pushing people out of the core of the city, this directly results in more urban sprawl. That’s bad for affordability, climate, and the economy. Any government serious about the housing or climate crises needs to tackle this sort of antiquated land use head-on.

Thankfully, it’s not too late to change course. Housing targets are difficult. But this number won’t make a dent in the housing crisis, and it’s time to go back to the drawing board.

Owning up to their mistake and committing to ending Vancouver’s housing shortage would help restore credibility to a government that needs to show results going into the next election.

The government has said they’re working on a policy to legalize more homes close to transit. This is their chance to show they’re serious about the housing crisis. New Zealand’s government required Auckland to legalize apartments of at least six floors within 800 metres of rapid transit. Anything less than that in Vancouver would put the nail in the coffin of this government’s housing strategy.

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