This year's BC home sales expected to exceed 2016's hot market record

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Driven by pent-up pandemic demand, low interest rates, and a dwindling supply that increases competition, British Columbia’s home sales in 2021 are now projected to break the previous record year of 2016.

British Columbia Real Estate Association’s (BCREA) newly released fourth quarter forecast anticipates residential sales across the province will rise 29% to 121,450 units this year — up from 94,013 sales in 2020.

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As of now, the housing market in BC is expected to see a comparative slowdown in 2022, falling by 15% to 102,750 units.

The average home price in BC is forecast to increase by 17% in 2021, but the rate in the increase of prices in 2022 will significantly moderate to about 3%, with the composition of home sales changing due to normalizing demand for single-family homes and a recovery in available listings.

While 2022’s forecast calls for a slowdown in activity, the market conditions will still be highly heated, comparable to the levels experienced in 2015 and 2017.

MLS residential sales in BC, unit sales by region. Forecast as of fourth quarter of 2021. (BC Real Estate Association)

Municipalities within the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver’s (REBGV) jurisdiction will see a 37.3% year-over-year increase to a total of 43,400 sales in 2021, before dropping by 14.7% to 37,000 units sold in 2022.

The average home price within REBGV is expected to rise by 10.8% to $1.181 million in 2021, and 1.6% to $1.2 million in 2022.

The Fraser Valley Real Estate Board (FVREB), which includes several Metro Vancouver cities such as Surrey, is expected to see a 34.6% year-over-year increase to 25,400 units sold in 2021. Similar in 2022, it will see a 15.4% drop to 21,500 sales.

FVREB’s average home price when 2021 is fully tallied will represent a 20.5% year-over-year increase. In 2022, home prices within this jurisdiction are forecast to rise by 3.7% to $1.032 million.

The biggest home sales volume rate reductions are expected in the Chilliwack and District Real Estate Board (-20.8%) and the Kootenay Real Estate Board (-20%).

“After a frenzied start to the year, activity in BC housing markets has settled back to a level that is broadly in-line with long-run trends. The strength of the first half of this year has sales on track to easily break the previous record for annual sales,” said Brendon Ogmundson, the chief economist of BCREA, in a statement.

“While we do not anticipate a repeat of the record-setting market of 2021, we do expect housing market activity to remain vigorous in 2022.”

In January 2021, BCREA predicted 2021’s total home sales activity would at least be slightly under the record-breaking 2016 year. The drop in activity between 2017 and 2019 was due to the effects of new interventionist measures by various levels of government, such as the provincial government’s foreign buyers’ tax enacted in Summer 2016.

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