Analytics simulation gives Canada 36% chance of advancing at FIFA World Cup
Canada has a shot at winning the 2022 FIFA World Cup.
Even though it’s not a great one.
The Canadian men’s national team has a one-in-50 shot at appearing in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and a 1% overall chance of winning the entire event, according to Nielsen’s Gracenote.
“Predictions are based on over one million simulations that produce estimates showing the most likely team to fill each position in the knockout stages,” according to Gracenote, which also reported the Canadian men’s national team fandom has increased 33% since the 2026 World Cup hosts were announced.
Only Costa Rica, Tunisia, Australia, Senegal, Saudi Arabia, Ghana, and Cameroon have a lower shot at the title, at 0%.
Canada, which has better betting odds than 10 other countries to win the World Cup, is officially making its first appearance on the FIFA World Cup stage in 36 years.
Gracenote is an analytics company that provides sports data for 70 sports and leagues, including the NFL, MLB, English Premier League, F1, Tour de France, and Wimbledon. It also covers global sporting events like the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup.
The outlet, which will run updated simulations after each day’s results during the 2022 FIFA World Cup to continually update its forecasts and projections, gives Canada a 5% shot at qualifying for the tournament’s semifinal and a 15% shot at making it to the quarterfinals.
Canada, which will play in Group F at the World Cup, with matches against Belgium, Morocco, and Croatia, has a 36% chance of advancing out of the group stage.
Belgium, No.2 in FIFA rankings entering the World Cup, has a 72% shot, while Croatia, ranked No. 12, has a 54% chance. Morocco, No. 22, has a 39% chance. Belgium lost to France in the semi-final four years ago and Croatia was a surprise World Cup finalist in 2018.
Canada will play Belgium on Wednesday, November 23, and Croatia on Sunday, November 27, before finishing the group stage against Morocco on Thursday, December 1.
The knockout phase will begin with the Round of 16 on December 3 and run through December 6. The quarterfinals will be played on December 9 and 10, with the semifinals set for December 13 and 14.
The final will be played on December 18.
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