What analytics say about new Canucks defenceman Filip Hronek

The Vancouver Canucks acquisition of Filip Hronek rocked this market.

And, it confused pundits all across the league.

One of the main points that many analysts made was that although the Canucks didn’t overpay for Hronek… it’s just not the type of trade that a bottom-dwelling team usually makes.

However, is it true that they actually didn’t overpay for Hronek?

Based on the price – a first- and second-round draft pick – Hronek should perform like a top-pairing, right-shot defenceman for years to come.

However, there are some reasons to be skeptical.

This has easily been his best NHL season

The price of acquiring a good right-shot defenceman is steep.

But, based on Hronek’s performance from 2022-23, he’s definitely been worth it.

The Athletic’s Player Card model pegs his true value at $8.1 million this season. He’s currently signed until the end of next season with an annual salary of $4.4 million.

You could take a glass-half-full approach here, which is that Hronek, who turned 25 earlier this season, has finally put it all together and is now an elite NHL defenceman.

However, that line of thinking conveniently ignores the fact that he’s had some ups and downs during his four previous seasons in the NHL.

Heck, even in his fourth NHL season last year, Hronek sat as a healthy scratch, as former Canuck Troy Stecher took his place in the lineup.

He’s struggled to defend in the past

While the importance of offence from blueliners shouldn’t be understated, what the Canucks really need on their roster is a responsible, defensive defenceman.

Up until this season, that wasn’t Hronek.

Every NHL season up until this year, Hronek’s defensive numbers, both relative to his team and others across the NHL, were below average.

From 2019-20 through 2021-22, Hronek had been on the ice for the third-most even-strength goals (109 goals for, 177 goals against) among all NHL defencemen.

His expected goals-against total of 2.68 paints a slightly better picture, but it was still 22nd-worst among defencemen (at least 1000 even strength minutes played) over a three-year span.

Part of the metrics are certainly due to Hronek playing on a bad team with next to little help. He was also a young defenceman who was pigeonholed into a top-pairing role.

However, there is reason to be cautious about his improved defensive performance this season being a bit of a mirage. Although he has an even-strength goal differential of 56.2% this season, his expected goals differential is only 46.5%. It is worth noting that his expected goals percentage is slightly above the Red Wings team average this season of 45.8%.

Hronek tends to play his best hockey with a stable partner

Although this has been Hronek’s best NHL season to date, it’s been a tale of two partners.

With the Red Wings, Hronek’s two primary partners this season have been Olli Maatta and Ben Chiarot.

Well, Hronek meshed extremely well with one of those defencemen. The other? Not so much.

“At the start of the year, he was paired with Olli Maatta, who might have the most predictable game of any partner he’s played with,” The Athletic’s Max Bultman said recently on Sportsnet 650.

“With Maatta, you know exactly what you’re getting, and I think that opened things up for him,” Bultman told hosts Satiar Shah and Dan Riccio.

When Hronek was playing with Maatta, their scoring chance differential was up at 49.1%. Although that’s slightly below par, it’s noticeably better than the Red Wings team average of 43.9% (prior to the Hronek trade).

Lowest goals against defensive pairs with at least 300 minutes played together https://t.co/N0eMdvBfsa pic.twitter.com/qMTG2PS2Jd

— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) March 5, 2023

When Maatta and Hronek were apart, both defencemen saw their scoring chance differential drop around 44%.

Now, when Hronek played with Chiarot, his scoring chance differential was a ghastly 40.2%. It improves to 49.3% in all of his even-strength minutes away from Chiarot.

Here’s the issue though: the Canucks don’t have a defenceman like Maatta on the team.

Hronek could play with Quinn Hughes, but that leaves the rest of the defence in shambles.

Aside from that, the Canucks don’t have anyone reliable on the left side. Sorry, Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Received a lot of power play time in Detroit

It’s well-known that Hronek has been a top-pairing defender on a bad Detroit team. That included ample opportunities as a power play quarterback.

He was demoted to the second power-play unit last season after the arrival of Moritz Seider. However, he wrestled back some time on the top unit away from Seider in 2022-23.

Hronek’s average five-on-four time per game jumped from 1:47 per contest in 2021-22 to 2:20 this season. He’s been noticeably more productive than Seider on the power play, and his 5.99 points per 60 ranks second among all Red Wings skaters.

No offence to Seider, but it’s hard to envision Hronek usurping Hughes on the Canucks top power play unit.

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