Ontario population projected to balloon by millions by 2048
Population forecasts released by Statistics Canada on Monday reveal that Ontario’s population could balloon by millions by 2048, with international migration being the main driver of growth over the next 25 years.
Since the last edition of population projections in 2022, Statistics Canada says the country’s demographic landscape has evolved substantially, with growth having been accelerated following the arrival of many permanent and temporary immigrants.
On Monday, the agency released its new set of projections for Canada’s population (up to 2073) and for provinces and territories (up to 2048). The projections include several possible scenarios of future evolution and take into account recent trends as well as the opinions of population experts.
In all projection scenarios, Ontario and Quebec would continue to be the most populous provinces in Canada over the next 25 years.
By 2048, the agency says the total population in Ontario could reach just about 18 million under the low-growth scenario. Under the medium-growth scenario, Ontario’s population could reach 20.6 million in the next 25 years — a 32.1% increase when compared with 2023 (population of 15.6 million).
Under the high-growth scenario, the province’s population could reach a staggering 24.2 million by 2048.
As Ontario’s population continues to age, Statistics Canada notes that the share of older adults (aged 65 and older) would continue to increase, with the proportion of people aged 85 and older rapidly increasing in all provinces and territories, including Ontario.
According to the medium-growth scenario, the proportion of people aged 65 and over in Ontario could increase from 18.3% in 2023 to 22.5% in 2048.
In 2023, people aged 85 years and over accounted for 2.3% of the total population of Ontario, and this proportion could increase to 5.1% by 2048, according to the medium-growth scenario.
The proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years in Ontario could reach 13.4% in 2048 under the medium-growth scenario, a 1.5 percentage point decrease compared with 2023 (14.9%).
Looking at Canada as a whole, the agency says the country’s population could reach 47.1 million by 2073 under the low-growth scenario, 62.8 million under the medium-growth scenario, and 87.2 million under the high-growth scenario.
Canada population forecast says country is on track to reach up to 87 million https://t.co/lZOTC5Jpgb
— blogTO (@blogTO) June 25, 2024
Canada’s population officially crossed the 41 million mark in April 2024.
“In all scenarios, migratory increase would be the key driver of population growth in Canada, continuing a trend observed since the beginning of the 1990s,” the agency notes.
“Natural increase — that is, the balance of births minus deaths — would play only a marginal role, given the anticipated rise in the number of deaths due to population aging, as well as low fertility, a situation observed in many other countries.”
Follow Channels and Categories