Canada's population on track to reach up to 87 million: forecast

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Newly released population forecasts by Statistics Canada this week show the nation’s population could more than double by the time millennials are well into their old age.

The high-growth scenario pegs Canada’s population at 87.2 million by 2073 — up from 41 million in 2024.

The medium-growth scenario would see the population rise to 62.8 million, while the low-growth scenario would see an increase to just 47.1 million over the next 50 years, which may be improbable. Canada first hit the 40 million mark in June 2023, and by April 2024, it already crossed the 41 million mark, according to Statistics Canada.

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Following an average 1.12% annual population growth rate over the past 30 years, the forecast pegs the average annual growth rate through 2073 at 1.59% for the high-growth scenario, 0.79% for the medium-growth scenario, and 0.07% for the low-growth scenario.

To varying degrees, all growth scenarios assume immigration will continue to be a key driver of population growth, continuing a trend seen since the early 1990s. Net gains from natural birth would only play a “marginal role” due to the aging population and low fertility.

It is anticipated the number of people aged 85 and older will continue to increase rapidly over the coming years, especially between 2031 and 2050, when the baby boomers reach this age group and increase the need for healthcare and services.

The number of people aged 85 and older would rise from about 900,000 in 2023 to between 3.3 million in the low-growth scenario and 4.3 million in the high-growth scenario by 2073, but the growth in the number of people entering the senior age would be less pronounced after 2030, when all baby boomers will have reached or passed the age of 65.

Canada’s average age would rise from 41.6 years in 2023 to between 42.6 years in the slow-aging scenario and 50.1 years in the fast-aging scenario by 2073.

For all trends, Ontario and Quebec would continue to be the most populated provinces in the country for the next quarter century. However, British Columbia, Alberta, and Saskatchewan would see their proportion of the country’s population rise through 2048, while Quebec, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador would see their proportions decrease in all scenarios.

BC is expected to remain as the third most populated province in all growth scenarios, but the current population gap with Alberta will be narrowed.

BC’s population is expected to rise from 5.5 million in 2023 to 6.5 million in 2048 for the low-growth scenario, 7.7 million for the medium-growth scenario, and 8.7 million for the high-growth scenario.

Over the same 25-year period, Alberta would grow from 4.6 million in 2023 to 6.2 million in the low-growth scenario, 7.3 million in the medium-growth scenario, and 7.9 million in the high-growth scenario.

Ontario’s population would rise from over 15.5 million in 2023 to 17.9 million in the low-growth scenario, 20.9 million in the medium-growth scenario, and 23.8 million in the high-growth scenario.

Amongst Canada’s four largest provinces, Quebec is the only province forecast to see a population stagnation and decline for its low-growth scenario — rising from 8.9 million in 2023 to a peak of 9.010 million in 2037, before steadily falling to 8.914 million by 2048. Quebec’s population would grow to 9.97 million in the medium-growth scenario and 11.1 million in the high-growth scenario.

It goes without saying that all of this has major implications for not only healthcare and services, but also housing supply and affordability, transportation infrastructure, utilities, and overall urban growth.

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