Ontario COVID-19 modelling shows cases trending down if measures stay in place

Oct 22 2021, 4:11 pm

The Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table has released the latest modelling for the province showing new case numbers remaining stable if current public health measures continue to be in place.

Modelling shows that cases have been falling and continue to do so in most public health units throughout the province. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions have remained stable since their last modelling update.

Ontario COVID-19 modelling

Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

In addition, test positivity rates are dropping. Meaning fewer people are testing positive for COVID-19.

The Science Table projects that COVID-19 cases will remain stable and continue to drop as long as the province maintains some public health measures. As winter months and the flu season approach, modelling indicates that with the current public health measures, Ontario can keep cases and hospital and ICU admissions stable.

Ontario COVID-19 modelling

Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

A worst-case scenario projected by the table shows a case rate increase to just above 600 new COVID-19 cases per day — a far cry from the thousands of cases being reported daily earlier this year.

ICU admissions are expected to remain stable so long as public health measures like masking, vaccination, increased ventilation, and symptom screening stays in place.

Despite the mostly good news, the Science Table warns that Ontario and much of Canada should learn from Nordic countries.

Even with high vaccination rates, Denmark and Finland are experiencing a surge in COVID-19 cases after removing all public health measures, trending in the opposite direction of Ontario’s case numbers.

Premier Doug Ford is expected to announce a long-term COVID-19 plan for the province on Friday afternoon. It is likely that he will lift capacity limits on gyms and restaurants.

The Ontario COVID-19 Science Table emphasizes that the next big step for Ontario will be vaccinating children when the pediatric vaccine is approved by Health Canada.

Brooke TaylorBrooke Taylor

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