Infection rates, hospitalizations expected to rebound: Science Table

Infection rates, hospitalizations expected to rebound with reopening: Ontario Science Table

Ontario’s COVID-19 Science Advisory Table has released updated disease modelling for the first time since December.

This time, the modelling appears to show a little bit of good news: the Omicron wave appears to have plateaued or is in decline. But this is a pandemic, so of course, there is also some bad news.

1/10 Here’s new modelling as Ontario begins a partial re-opening – in 10 tweets. Bottom line: Hospitalizations will probably jump, we need to watch spread closely & accelerate vaccination. #COVID19ON https://t.co/5fQln5XvSa

— COVIDScienceOntario (@COVIDSciOntario) February 1, 2022

First, let’s dig into the good news. The Science Table shows that wastewater surveillance had peak infection rates on January 4, which would line up with peak infection rates by January 11.

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Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

The Science Table has opted to use wastewater data as the province scaled back who is able to access a publicly funded PCR test, driving case numbers down and making them inaccurate.

The Science Table also looked at testing in other settings and saw a similar dip in infection rates. Workplace screening and hospital admission tests showed a decline in COVID-19 positive results, with a peak around January 11.

Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

The Science Table said that modelling is still presenting a challenge due to testing limitations, and they expect cases will rise alongside restrictions being lifted.

This is where the bad news comes in.

As cases rise, so too will hospitalizations. In all but the very best-case scenarios, hospitalizations and ICU admissions will rebound to all-time high numbers from earlier in this surge.

In a worst-case scenario, the modelling suggests that hospitalizations could come close to 6,000. A more moderate scenario shows hospitalizations rising above 4,000. The best-case scenario shows a decline, with hospitalizations hovering around 2,000. A best-case scenario is only achievable, according to the Science Table, if more than three million Ontarians had a recent Omicron infection.

Ontario COVID-19 Science Advisory Table

ICU admissions would show a similar trend in an industry that is burnt out and suffering a nursing shortage. In a worst-case scenario, ICU admissions could get close to 750. In a best-case scenario, they could dip to about 300.

The Science Table emphasized that it’s hard to predict how much spread of COVID-19 there will be with restrictions lifting. The restrictions introduced in December and January are what slowed the spread of Omicron. Those restrictions began lifting on Monday.