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Road to 51: Breaking down Matthews' goals for the Leafs this season

Arun Srinivasan
Arun Srinivasan
|
Feb 22 2024, 4:40 pm
Road to 51: Breaking down Matthews' goals for the Leafs this season
Mark J. Rebilas/USA TODAY Sports

Toronto Maple Leafs forward Auston Matthews is running away with the Rocket Richard Trophy, casting a torrential downpour of goals throughout the season and he’s now entering historic territory.

Matthews scored his 50th and 51st goals of the 2023-24 season Wednesday night against the Arizona Coyotes, taking 54 games to reach this milestone. 

Matthews is a one-of-one scorer, he’s the most naturally gifted shooter in the league and he’s scorching opponents at a 22 percent clip on 232 shots — the fourth-most in the NHL.

There’s no one operating with the same efficiency paired with tremendous volume — Sam Reinhart of the Florida Panthers is the lone counter with 39 goals on 26.7 percent shooting, he’s likely finishing second in the Rocket race while battling Matthews as a leading contender for the Selke Trophy as well.

Reinhart has taken 86 fewer shots than Matthews, there are bound to be diminishing returns and the rest of the field isn’t anywhere close to matching elite efficiency with goal-scoring.

You can’t dismiss Matthews as a power play merchant either, as he leads the NHL with 26 goals at 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick. 

We’re examining Matthews’ goal distribution chart by shot type, as he can score from virtually anywhere, while patenting his whip-like release on his snap shot from the top of the faceoff circle.

Matthews’ goals for the Leafs this year

(Via NHL.com, by shot type)

Matthews is the best shooter alive 

If it wasn’t already clear, Matthews is the best shooter alive and the diversification of his shot profile makes him a nightmare to defend. Although Matthews is correctly known for his incredible release on his wrist and snap shots, he can score virtually anytime he has the puck inside the offensive third.

He can beat goalies on his backhand while using his massive frame to shield off defenders, he can wedge his way into the slot to tip and deflect shots and the threat of his shot opens up space for his teammates — a real gravity effect akin to Steph Curry’s on the basketball court.

The above goal from a January 9 Leafs game against the San Jose Sharks encapsulates what Matthews is best known for, an ability to get his release off from anywhere and depositing the puck into the top corner.

We’ll examine his two-man game with Mitch Marner, an all-world playmaker, later in the piece.

This goal against the Columbus Blue Jackets on December 30 is another clear-cut example of Matthews’ elite shooting ability.

You give him an inch, he’ll carve your defense into pieces. And there are countless examples of Matthews scoring jaw-dropping goals, but these two examples display that he’s a threat both as a stationery shooter and when he’s afforded some time to accelerate into his release.

A master of a dead art

The slap shot is being phased out of the NHL, the modern game moves too quickly for the game’s present superstars to lean into booming shots. Matthews is one of the exceptions, along with David Pastrnak and Steven Stamkos. He boasts an elite slap shot and unfurls it with such force and precision, it often freezes the defense.

The Leafs’ power play is more robust than previous years as William Nylander has become a more willing shooter, but the focal point will always be No. 34’s slap shot, as evidenced against the Philadelphia Flyers on February 15.

It’s the same story against the Anaheim Ducks on February 17. Matthews is hovering in the faceoff circle on the power play and John Gibson has no chance. Let Auston shoot at your own peril.

Matthews turning defense into offense for the Leafs

Matthews is likely going to appear on a few Selke ballots this season, even if he’s doomed to lose to Reinhart or Aleksander Barkov. The Leafs’ resident superstar has become elite at turning defense into instant offense, whether it’s slipping into space off a turnover created, or his own ability to score off takeaways.

In the above clip, Pontus Holmberg strips Noah Dobson, Matthews swoops in and tucks it away neatly on his backhand. One fell swoop and the NHL’s most dangerous goal-scorer is on the doorstep. It’s forcing opponents to account for him in all scenarios.

Matthews has generated 45 takeaways against 29 giveaways at 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick and he’s always around the puck. It just takes a few steps for Matthews to take a routine takeaway generated by Timothy Liljegren into a lethal weapon.

Marner is putting Matthews in optimal scenarios

Matthews deserves all of his flowers but he’s not reaching 51 goals in 54 games without Mitch Marner, who has excelled as an all-world playmaker for large portions of the season. Marner works tirelessly to get Matthews the puck and though he’s not providing Selke-level defensive impact, he has an innate sense of where No. 34 is at all times.

This play is rather simple. Marner, in tandem with Tyler Bertuzzi force a turnover, then No. 16 gets to work. Marner surveys the ice, waits for Matthews to crash the slot, then threads a pass through Colton Parayko’s legs and the rest is history. Marner does terrific work in short areas, it’s where his hands and playmaking ability separates him from any of Matthews’ other teammates, past and present.

Marner excels in a tight space here against the Ottawa Senators and Matthews makes no mistake and it’s generally where this line — primarily paired with rookie Matthew Knies, excels, making life hell in the slot for opponents.

It should be noted that Marner is also one of the NHL’s best long-range playmakers as well, as evidenced by this beautiful pass that springs Matthews for his first of three goals against the Flyers. Toronto’s star duo are inextricably linked and for all the glory and accolades Matthews deserves, Marner has been there every step of the way as the conductor.

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