"Game of inches": Why Matthews' "down year" shouldn't concern Leafs fans

When Toronto Maple Leafs fans take a look at Auston Matthews’ season this year, it’s hard not to think about how the team might be performing had their star centre been playing his best hockey.

After he finished sixth in league scoring last year, you’d have to scroll down pretty far to see Matthews’ name on the list of league leaders this season.

As of Monday, Matthews sits 32nd league-wide in points and 18th in goals.

Relatively speaking to the rest of the NHL, it’s good — very good, even — but it’s nothing special, especially of a player coming off an MVP campaign and one who sits third amongst the highest salary cap hits.

No disrespect to LA’s Kevin Fiala, Buffalo’s Alex Tuch, or even Matthews’ cross-province rival in Ottawa’s Brady Tkachuk: but one would assume that the league’s reigning Hart Trophy and Rocket Richard winner would be a little bit higher than those names on the league scoring titles.

He’s actually fourth in team scoring as well, sitting behind all of Mitch Marner (74 points), William Nylander (72), and John Tavares (61).

He’s some 59 points behind Edmonton’s Connor McDavid for the league lead, and surely causing headaches to fantasy hockey players around the world who were hoping he’d be among the league’s top performers this season.

And in the first four games of the Ryan O’Reilly era in Toronto, Matthews had yet to find the back of the net.

But when it comes to the actual league standings, the Leafs are sitting pretty, regardless of how well Matthews is or isn’t performing.

Thankfully, the Leafs are in a spot where they don’t really need Matthews to be a world-beater to being among the league’s top teams, as they’re sitting fourth-league-wide with a  .683. points percentage and a 37-15-8 record. It’s their third-best regular season ever by points percentage, behind each of the previous two seasons.

And on Sunday night in Toronto’s 5-1 win over Seattle, while reunited with linemate Mitch Marner, Matthews hit the net twice for his 27th and 28th goals of the season. He’s on pace to hit 30 goals for the seventh time in as many NHL seasons, with 40 not too far out of reach.

Really, it shouldn’t be any cause for concern that Matthews isn’t lighting up the scoresheet at the 60-goal pace he hit last season.

Per Natural Stat Trick, Matthews is actually creating the expected highest scoring rate of his career at 5v5, measured by the individual expected goals/60 stat (iXG/60).

He’s doing everything expected of him on the ice but is operating at a career-low shooting percentage of 12.24 at 5v5. A few more chances here and there went in, and nobody would be batting an eye about a “down year” for Matthews.

“It’s a game of inches sometimes,” Matthews said on Sunday night. “It’s pretty natural for your confidence to hinder at times when the puck’s not going in and stuff like that. It’s easy to get discouraged.”

Injuries may have played a little part in it, too, with Matthews missing seven games this season dealing with a knee injury.

“Auston’s had a number of chances that just haven’t gone in for him this year,” Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe told reporters following Sunday’s win. “So, it magnifies everything there. And then the moment it doesn’t go in for you, you start to press or simplify things a little bit. Maybe you simplify too much and get away from the things that make you really go.”

It’s not hard to imagine Matthews may cruise through the Leafs’ next 22 games with anywhere from five to 25 goals, depending on how the puck bounces in.

Matthews’ standard stats might not be as eye-popping as they usually tend to be. But should that really be a cause for concern?

If we’re going to judge the Leafs come playoff time, it only makes sense to do the same with their best player. Let’s revisit this discussion come April for whether there’s anything much to be worried about when it comes to #34.

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