Why Dubas needs to be creative to solve Leafs' Sandin contract pickle
As the Toronto Maple Leafs get set to open training camp next month, one major name might be missing from their roster: young defenceman Rasmus Sandin.
The 22-year-old Swede is the only key Leafs player without a contract for this upcoming season, as he’s currently a restricted free agent coming off his rookie deal.
Barring an extremely unlikely offer sheet, there’s a little weariness but no major urgency to get a deal done, as it’s still some 53 days out from the Leafs’ season opener on October 12.
But the latest set of quotes related to the contract weren’t exactly inspiring.
“Negotiations are going nowhere,” Lewis Gross, Sandin’s agent, told Sportsnet’s Luke Fox earlier this week.
“Negotiating contracts via the media have an adverse impact on player (and) team reputation and traditionally do not create resolutions to private matters,” Leafs GM Kyle Dubas told Fox in the same article.
As of now, we have a classic case of contract stalemate that hockey fans know all too well.
What is fair value for Rasmus Sandin?
The biggest strength of negotiating value to Sandin’s camp is that he’s played extremely well in the minutes he’s had with the Leafs.
He rocked a Corsi-for percentage of 54.6% this past season as well as an expected goals mark of 58.3%, both per Natural Stat Trick, which each ranked third amongst regular Leafs defenders.
Okay, okay, fine. Sandin is crushing sheltered third-pair minutes about as resoundingly as possible, 2nd among all defencemen (500+ minutes played) with a 59.9% expected goal share at 5v5. #LeafsForever https://t.co/88Yk2wXdOn pic.twitter.com/YsjdWu7H82
— JFresh (@JFreshHockey) February 20, 2022
The biggest detriment to his camp is, well, he hasn’t really played a ton.
In his three years in the NHL, he’s still only skated in 88 regular season games so far, hardly more than the length of a single season. His career average ice time is just 15:53 per game, mostly getting third-pairing minutes behind a veteran Leafs d-corps.
He suited up in five playoff contests against Montreal in 2021, but was unable to crack this year’s lineup against Tampa Bay while nursing his way back from an injury.
Additionally, the Leafs are right up against the salary cap, with a big fat zero next to their cap space as per Capfriendly.com.
Rasmus Sandin contract comparables
At this point in time, it’s hard to fathom that the Leafs are magically pulling out a long-term contract for Sandin.
Fox posited that the Leafs offered him a contract similar to Timothy Liljegren’s two year, $2.8 million deal, which was obviously declined.
12 defencemen in the NHL signed a deal at age 24 or younger for upwards of $2 million per year, but for three seasons or less.
| Rasmus Dahlin | 21 | 3 | RFA | $6,000,000 |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 22 | 3 | RFA | $4,800,000 |
| Filip Hronek | 23 | 3 | RFA | $4,400,000 |
| Vince Dunn | 24 | 2 | RFA | $4,000,000 |
| Ryan Lindgren | 23 | 3 | RFA | $3,000,000 |
| Erik Cernak | 23 | 3 | RFA | $2,950,000 |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | 24 | 3 | UFA | $2,800,000 |
| Adam Boqvist | 21 | 3 | RFA | $2,600,000 |
| Philippe Myers | 23 | 3 | RFA | $2,550,000 |
| Henri Jokiharju | 22 | 3 | RFA | $2,500,000 |
| Dante Fabbro | 23 | 2 | RFA | $2,400,000 |
| Jake Bean | 23 | 3 | RFA | $2,333,333 |
Loosely speaking, these are largely the defenders that fit Sandin’s profile: solid contributors, but not quite in the “star” range. Like Sandin, there are plenty of former first-round picks sprinkled in, but no one who’s quite elevated to the “top-pairing stud” status yet.
There’s also a list of 25 defenders who all are on contracts signed at age 24 or prior, while also signing a contract for four years or longer. The cheapest of those deals is Mario Ferraro’s four-year, $3.25 million per year contract. In short: if Sandin’s looking for anything over three years, he’s also be aiming for a decent pay raise.
How do you solve a problem like Rasmus?
If the Leafs hope to get Sandin on their roster, they’ll likely have to make a trade of some kind.
Three players: Alex Kerfoot ($3.5 million), Pierre Engvall ($2.25 million), and Justin Holl ($2 million), stand out as expiring UFAs on likely moveable contracts.
In the long-term future of the Leafs, Sandin should slot to be more important than any three of those players. It’d be a classic salary dump situation, with the Leafs not likely getting anything other than a draft pick or prospects in return to clear space for a new contract.
Easier said than done, but if the Leafs suddenly find themselves trading one of those three, well, a Sandin contract might be not far behind.
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