No contract extension for Dubas makes sense for both the GM and Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs General Manager Kyle Dubas was put in the rare spot this week where he delivered some own news about himself: the Leafs aren’t interested in re-signing him.
At least not yet.
After a few seasons working various management roles with the Leafs, Dubas signed a five-year deal to be the Leafs’ general manager back in summer 2018, set to expire at the end of this season.
And though the Leafs could offer Dubas a contract extension if they wanted, they’ve yet to extend that courtesy to the 36-year-old.
“[Leafs president Brendan Shanahan and I] met at the end of the summer and kind of went through the way the year was going to go. Frankly, that is what I expected,” Dubas told reporters yesterday.
Four years after signing his deal, the Leafs have had four successful regular seasons in a row. They’re fifth in the NHL in wins over Dubas’ contract, third in goals scored, and have made the postseason in four consecutive years.
They’ve seen the two highest seasons by points percentage in team history, had a Leafs player win the Hart Trophy for the first since 1955, and managed the salary cap well enough to continually ice a competitive roster.
But, well, you probably know the rest of the story.
The Maple Leafs have yet to win a playoff round under Dubas (or several previous general managers), and in the midst of a competitive Stanley Cup window, every season matters when the ultimate goal isn’t accomplished.
The Leafs might look like a contender on paper year after year but have seen first-round playoff losses to Boston, Columbus, Montreal, and most recently Tampa Bay under Dubas. Each of those series went the distance, with Toronto unable to close out their opponents each time.
Dubas added that they’ll revisit his employment status with the team next summer.
“The reality is that I fully acknowledge we haven’t gotten it done at the end of the season. I would much rather be evaluated on the full term anyway,” Dubas said. “We just had a conversation about it. That was great. I am very happy to go through with how we are going through it.”
And while it might be seen by some as a reason to think Dubas’ days are numbered, the lack of contract extension actually makes a whole lot of sense for everyone involved.
The case for extending Dubas next summer
In many ways, the bulk of Dubas’ work ends the day the trade deadline comes, with the rest of the way the Leafs’ season plays out largely left up to the hockey gods.
Under Dubas, the Leafs have consistently been one of the NHL’s strongest regular season teams by just about every available metric, whether it be the base stats or the more advanced ones.
As mentioned above, they’ve won the fifth-most games in the league over that span, while the Leafs’ 53.9% 5v5 goal percentage over the last five seasons is seventh in the NHL.
He’s made savvy moves for high-profile veterans like Joe Thornton, Jake Muzzin, and Mark Giordano, he’s found value in miscast players like Jake Campbell and Michael Bunting, and generally replenished the roster year-over-year with new talent.
And while he’s gotten some stick for it, Dubas has found a way to keep the Leafs’ four star forwards — William Nylander, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and Auston Matthews — under contract for much of the prime of their careers.
He hasn’t been a perfect general manager by any means, but the Leafs are among the favourites to win the Stanley Cup this upcoming season for a reason, and much of that has to do with Dubas.
The case against extending Dubas next summer
The simplest reason against not extending Dubas next summer would come if the Leafs have another tough run in the playoffs, particularly if they bounce out in the first round once again.
Close series against tough opponents and strong regular seasons be damned, the bottom line is Dubas was expected to build a successful playoff team in Toronto.
We’ll see how this season plays out, but as of right now, it’s been a lot of heartbreak and long offseasons of contemplation, rather than celebration.
Not extending Dubas wouldn’t solve too many of the Leafs’ problems, but it would offer them a fresh start with many of the team’s star players still in the prime of their career.
“I know it is not going to be a distraction. I won’t let it be a distraction,” Dubas said of his contract situation yesterday.
For his sake — and the Leafs — Dubas can only hope he’s right.
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