Leafs castoff Justin Holl leading the NHL in a surprising stat
When the Toronto Maple Leafs opted to move on from defenceman Justin Holl this past summer, it seemed like a move that would benefit everyone involved.
Holl, a 31-year-old who’d spent parts of six seasons with the Leafs, departed for the Detroit Red Wings on a three-year deal worth $10.2 million signed in July.
That was far more than Toronto would’ve ever conceivably offered him, with his former franchise prioritizing short-term deals in favour of long-term salary cap flexibility.
And while Holl remained in the division, he was joining a Red Wings team that hadn’t won a playoff series since 2013 and hadn’t qualified for the playoffs in seven seasons. Slotting in on his new team’s third pairing, Holl was likely expected to be mostly out-of-sight, out-of-mind for Toronto fans except for a few times a year when the Leafs face Detroit.
It’s still early days, but Holl’s Red Wings are on a five-game winning streak after dropping the opening game of the season, as they sit tied for second in the NHL with 10 points.
And Holl surprisingly finds himself on top of the league leaders in plus-minus, sporting an NHL-best +9 through the team’s first six games.
While many hockey fans have moved on from plus-minus for more modern statistics, it’s still surprising nonetheless to see Holl leading the NHL in anything at all.
Looking at the league leaders in plus-minus over the last two years, we see a bit of an obvious flaw with the statistic.
Three Boston defencemen — Hampus Lindholm (+49), Matt Grzelcyk (+46), and Brandon Carlo (+44) — occupied the 1-2-3 spots for plus-minus in the league in 2022-23, while three then-Calgary forwards — Johnny Gaudreau (+64), Elias Lindholm (+61), and Matthew Tkachuk (+57) — all slotted 1-2-3 a year prior. That suggests the stat tells you more about a team’s quality than any individual player, and we shouldn’t necessarily be crowning Holl a Norris Trophy winner based on a few weeks of positively trending play.
As for his expected goals mark at 5v5 this year, Holl’s sporting a 54% as per MoneyPuck — a decent number, but by no means a stand-off-the-page mark this early in the season, while he’s chipped in three assists in the five games he’s suited up in.
Holl will get a chance to face his old teammates when the Leafs and Red Wings meet in Sweden next month at Stockholm’s Avicii Arena on November 17. Their first matchup this season on this side of the Atlantic Ocean comes on January 14.
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