Blue Jays' playoff odds fall under 50% for first time this season

The sky might not be entirely falling for the Toronto Blue Jays, but it’s definitely getting a little closer.

In their last eight games — all against divisional opponents in the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles, and Tampa Bay Rays — the Jays have gone 1-7, leading to a sharp decrease in their chance of qualifying for the MLB playoffs for a second year in a row.

Off the heels of five straight losses, Toronto sits fifth in a stacked American League East division with a record of 25-23, and while there’s still plenty of optimism that the team will turn it around and qualify for the playoffs, it’s looking slightly more likely that the Blue Jays disappoint and miss the playoffs.

Per FanGraphs, Toronto’s odds of qualifying for this year’s postseason sit at 49%, just ahead of Baltimore’s 46.9% odds.

Toronto’s drop-off is a -23.2% decrease from just one week ago, and the first time all year they’ve seen their odds dip below 50%.

Meanwhile, Baltimore’s odds have risen 10.8% over the course of the past week, largely due to a three-game sweep of the Jays this past weekend at the Rogers Centre.

“We’re just not playing good baseball right now. We’ve got to clean a lot of things up. From a pitching standpoint to base running, all facets of the game, we’ve got to clean it up,” pitcher Chris Bassitt told reporters after yesterday’s 6-4 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays.

#BlueJays Chris Bassitt:

"You can’t give multiple outs to a really good team and expect to win. We’re just not playing good baseball right now. We’ve got to clean a lot of things up. From a pitching standpoint to base running, all facets of the game, we’ve got to clean it up."

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) May 23, 2023

The Blue Jays began the season with 72% odds to make the playoffs, which ranked second in the AL East, behind the Yankees at 81.2% and ahead of the Rays at 61.3%. Toronto’s preseason odds also ranked sixth across all of Major League Baseball, while they now sit 11th.

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