If Auston Matthews doesn’t win the Hart this year, he might never get it
In many ways, Auston Matthews’ case for the Hart Trophy as NHL MVP is already well written.
He’s tied the Toronto Maple Leafs’ goal record for most tallies in a single season and is on pace to become the first NHL player to hit 60 or more goals since Steven Stamkos did so in 2012.
Matthews became the fourth Leaf to ever hit 50 goals in a season, doing so in just 62 games.
He’s increased his goals per game output — 0.54, 0.63, 0.79, and finally, 0.83 this season — in each of the last four years.
On a nightly basis, Matthews is more likely to score a goal than not, a feat that’s matched by few players over the course of NHL history.
At age 24, Matthews is in the prime of his career, with 54 goals and 41 assists in just 65 games. He’s currently the betting favourite to win the award, via Covers.com.
His main competitors seem to be the Edmonton dynamic duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, Rangers goaltender Igor Shesterkin, Calgary’s Johnny Gaudreau, and Florida’s Jonathan Huberdeau.
Matthews has picked up two individual awards: the 2016-17 Calder Trophy as Rookie of the Year and the 2020-21 Rocket Richard Trophy for leading the league in goals, the latter of which he’s on pace to become a two-time winner.
In one sense, it doesn’t matter all that much in the grand scheme whether he wins the MVP award this year or not.
Matthews, like most players, has repeatedly said that he’s focused on team success over solo accolades.
By the time Matthews finds out his fate for this year’s Hart voting at the NHL Awards on June 18, the Leafs’ season will be completed. A sixth consecutive first-round playoff exit, a deep playoff run, or the Leafs’ first Stanley Cup since 1967? If the Leafs don’t have any playoff success, the Hart Trophy would very much seem like a consolation to Toronto fans.
And yet, as great as he’s been this year, if Matthews doesn’t end up with the MVP this season, it’s quite possible he’ll never go home with the award.
Historical Hart Trophy snubs
In 2011-12, Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos had one of the best goal-scoring seasons this side of the millennium, potting 60 goals and 32 assists in 82 games.
He received one first-place vote out of 149, with the Hart Trophy going to Evgeni Malkin’s 50 goals and 59 assists in 109 games.
Now 32 and in his 14th NHL season and a sure-fire Hall of Famer, it still doesn’t look like Stamkos will ever get his hand on the elusive Hart Trophy.
In 2013-14, Alex Ovechkin had a 51-goal, 79-point season, the former of which led the league. Sure, Matthews has already topped both those marks, but… Ovechkin received a single-fifth place vote, despite clearly being the league’s goal scorer that season.
Ovechkin did pick up Hart wins in three other seasons, but is a great example that a strong goal-scoring season alone doesn’t always win the minds of award voters.
Backing up a previous generation, Pavel Bure led the NHL in scoring with goals of 58, 59, and 60 in three separate seasons.
Bure never finished higher than third in place for Hart voting, only picking up 11 of a possible 58 first-place votes in 1999-00, his closest shot at winning the MVP.
Matthews has done just about everything possible to earn a Hart Trophy. Warranted or not, there’s still a strong precedent he never ends up as the NHL’s MVP.
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