Why Atkins and Shapiro might be betting their jobs on Blue Jays' high-risk offseason

The Toronto Blue Jays definitely made a lot of gambles with their transactions over the offseason.

The biggest question is: are they the right ones?

A promising 2022 season ended in disappointment for the Blue Jays, literally and figuratively crashing out of the playoffs with the worst blown lead in team playoff history in the 10-9 loss in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Seattle Mariners.

Nobody really needs to revisit how things unfolded in that game, though it’s almost impossible to not think about it when discussing Toronto’s offseason.

The Bo Bichette-George Springer collision that allowed the game-tying three runs to score ranks right at the top of the biggest blunders in Toronto sports history, but there’s plenty of room for positivity and optimism in Toronto in 2023.

Bichette, Alek Manoah, Alejandro Kirk, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr will all still be 25 and younger come Opening Day.

On the flip side, for every young talent the Blue Jays have, there’s a corresponding big name that the team’s front office has sent somewhere else.

Top prospects in Austin Martin and Gabriel Moreno were both shipped away from Toronto in consecutive years. Fan-favorite outfielders Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez? Both were out the door this winter in moves to Arizona and Seattle.

That foursome of talent has been replaced, essentially, by a pair of outfielders in Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier, as well as starting pitcher Jose Berrios, and relievers Erik Swanson and Adam Macko.

It’s a series of big bets for Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins and president Mark Shapiro, who missed out on consensus top targets in free agency like Cody Bellinger, Kodai Senga, Brando Nimmo, or just about anyone else they were linked with.

Toronto’s front office is clearly not afraid of doing unpopular moves. But for Atkins and Shapiro’s sake, they can only hope they’ve made the right ones.

Do they really have the slack on their leash for another season ending in disappointment after three consecutive years without a single playoff win on their resume? They might not quite have their names on the hot seat list yet.

But for a fanbase that’s used to being fed lines about patience and trust in the team’s process, 2023 must be a year where the team delivers some solid playoff results.

Unlike years past when the team made moves for star players Springer and Hyun Jin Ryu, there was no major, franchise-altering signing this winter to bring in optimism.

Varsho and Kiermaier are both two players who don’t immediately jump out on the stat sheet, though look to provide value in other ways.

Varsho’s batting average is just .235 in 2022, while .228. As for their on-base percentage? .302 and .281.

You can pick and choose whatever hitting stats you like, but neither player is coming off all-that-great offensive seasons.

It’s clear that the pair of outfielders were acquired for their talents in fielding and baserunning, two areas where Gurriel and Hernandez showed flashes of brilliance but also moments of frustration. Both have Varsho and Kiermaier Gold Glove potential and expect to play every day.

And that availability — the “they’re here and ready right now” is one advantage the two new guys have over Toronto’s now-former prospects. Moreno’s played in just 25 MLB games, while Martin has yet to play above the AA level.

There’s still intrigue as to how each player will look if they’re able to become MLB regulars.

As for Berrios, he was third on the Blue Jays with 171 innings pitched in 2022, but put up just a 5.23 ERA in his 32 starts for Toronto. By WAR, he was a negative asset, putting up a -0.5 mark in 2022.

Berrios is signed through 2028 on a $131 million deal that was agreed to following the 2021 season. He’s got plenty of time to turn it around, but the trade and subsequent signing have got disastrous potential if he isn’t able to work out his issues on the mound.

Is a depth starting pitcher who’s not adding much — if any — value to the team really worth a player taken fifth overall? Are two strong- fielding outfielders who aren’t the best batters — better fits than two talented offseason outfielders prone to the odd blunder? Well, there’s only one way to find out.

Atkins and Shapiro have a tendency to say the right things about the team’s high aspirations. For now, there’s still plenty to prove for this core, even with the team coming off their sixth- and seventh-best regular seasons in team history.

Since 2017, the Blue Jays have picked up an imperfect postseason record under Shapiro and Atkins: four playoff losses, zero wins. Tough American League East Division or not, there’s still a massive mountain to climb when it comes to any real semblance of success with this management group and team core.

The Blue Jays have World Series aspirations and a lot of promise.

They’ve got a fancy new stadium renovation to look forward to come April and in future seasons, and plenty of reason to believe they’ll be one of baseball’s best teams once again.

But until they actually turn that corner and prove their ability to compete in the postseason, one can only be skeptical if those promises from Shapiro and Atkins will be delivered.

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