76,000 Washingtonians could be infected with COVID-19 by Thanksgiving

With 2,589 COVID-19 cases announced on Tuesday, Washington State saw its largest increase of daily cases.

Mike Famulare, Principal Research Scientist at the Institute for Disease Modeling, explained that the spike in cases and rising hospitalizations in Washington are due to increased community spread.

He shared graphs visualizing that the steady increase of case numbers roughly reached the previous March peak as of November 6 and will hit 1% community infection by Thanksgiving if action isn’t taken. That would amount to 76 thousand people having the virus, as he estimates that between 25 to 40 thousand asymptomatic cases will bring the virus with them to dinner.

The recent explosion in #COVID19 cases and rising hospitalizations in WA is due to increasing prevalence in the community. Here’s what we know about how many people are infected and what it means for your risk at Thanksgiving and other gatherings. pic.twitter.com/KshcVL3HxP

— Mike Famulare (@famulare_mike) November 18, 2020

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Famulare explained that it’s time to make changes again, and eliminate social gatherings.

It’s in our control. Stay apart. Quarantine beforehand if you must gather. Always mask. Stay outside. Ventilate. Discuss risk beforehand to get past feeling shy about safety. We have the power to save lives this Thanksgiving and every day to come.

— Mike Famulare (@famulare_mike) November 18, 2020

Governor Jay Inslee joined the conversation as well, reminding the public that hospitals can quickly become overwhelmed. He added that successfully flattening the curve will keep people out of the hospital and save lives.

This is why we took action. If things don’t change, our hospitals will be overwhelmed.

If we can repeat the success we had in March, we will bend the curve, keep people out of the hospital and save lives. pic.twitter.com/0dbLS4SxUS

— Governor Jay Inslee (@GovInslee) November 18, 2020

To manage COVID-19 transmission rates, Washington State has once again halted indoor restaurant and bar services, is limiting religious services, and has capped in-store retail, grocery stores, and personal services to 25% occupancy.