While the Montreal Canadiens management team recently declared that the team is ready to be “in the mix” again, oddsmakers don’t like their playoff chances going into the 2024-25 season.
The Canadiens have just an 8.21% chance of punching a ticket to the postseason, according to analytics website MoneyPuck. That gives them the fifth-worst playoff odds in the entire NHL, with a slightly better chance than teams like the Chicago Blackhawks (7.7%) and Anaheim Ducks (4.2%).
Meanwhile, the Columbus Blue Jackets (0.6%) and San Jose Sharks (0.2%) have already been virtually eliminated from the race entirely based on the model’s projections.
Hockey is back! pic.twitter.com/2pA41Vrh7o
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) October 2, 2024
For context, MoneyPuck’s database takes into account numerous factors, including each team’s shooting percentage, save percentage, expected goals percentage, and shot share. This helps simulate the NHL season 100,000 times to come away with these percentages.
The Canadiens, who are still in the midst of a rebuild, have finished towards the bottom of the NHL’s overall standings for the past three years, which certainly contributed to their poor score. Throw in some unfortunate special teams stats, and the fact that they haven’t had an 80+ point producer since 2007-08, and their thin sliver of the pie chart starts to make more sense.
However, the recent additions of weapons like Patrik Laine and Lane Hutson, paired with the return of Kirby Dach, who was out with an injury last year, could provide the Habs with a much-needed boost, especially in the offensive zone.
As is the case with any analytical model, MoneyPuck’s playoffs odds tracker is bound to have some pretty big swings throughout the season and be affected by every Habs win or loss.
Montreal begins its quest to disprove the naysayers on October 9, facing the Toronto Maple Leafs at the Bell Centre for the regular season opener.