With only a handful of games remaining in their season, the Montreal Canadiens are in a race to the bottom of the NHL standings.
Riding a record of 29-36-12, the Canadiens currently sit in 28th place with the fifth-worst record in the entire league. Fortunately, Montreal’s lack of victories currently gives them the fifth-best odds (8.5%) of winning the draft lottery next month.
With that said, there’s a strong chance that they drop in the order because of the cumulative odds of other teams in the six to 16 range.
Mathematically speaking, the Habs can rise all the way up to 22nd place if they go on an extended winning streak, and the five teams between them and the New Jersey Devils do the opposite. That would reduce their odds of winning the lottery to a mere 3.5%.
Dropping to 29th remains possible but unlikely as the Canadiens are six points ahead of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
Essentially, Montreal will most likely finish their current campaign in one of four spots between 25th and 28th place, barring an improbable turn of events.
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Given they stay put and don’t surpass the Arizona Coyotes — who are only one point ahead of them with 71 on the season — here’s how the Habs’ odds of landing a pick in the top five tally up.
If the season ended today, the Canadiens would most likely end up drafting one spot lower than last year with the sixth overall pick — since they currently have a 44% chance of claiming the No. 6 spot and 14.2% chance of dropping to No. 7.
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That gives them a 58.2% total chance of drafting outside the top five for the first time since 2022. They also have a decent shot at going back-to-back at fifth overall with a 24.5% chance.
On the other side of that coin, though, Montreal has a mere 8.5% chance of winning the draft lottery and claiming the first overall pick.
Sure, it’s unlikely, but it wouldn’t be the first time the draw has seen such a major jump. Back in 2007, the Chicago Blackhawks climbed up the draft board with the fifth-best odds to end up with the top pick, ultimately selecting Patrick Kane.
The chances of ending up with the second overall pick are slightly greater at 8.6%. Meanwhile, No. 3 is virtually out of reach (0.3%) as the San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, and Anaheim Ducks have a combined 94.2% chance of landing it.
Even if the standings get shuffled, Montreal has a 12.4% to 17.4% chance of getting a top-three pick if they finish somewhere between 25th and 28th place.
With all that math in mind, it definitely wouldn’t hurt the rebuilding Canadiens to extend their ongoing losing streak by a couple of games to improve their position going forward.
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