What will McDavid's next contract with Edmonton Oilers look like?
No matter what happens over the next two years, Connor McDavid is in line for a major payday.
The Edmonton Oilers captain is embarking on a new two-year, $25-million deal ($12.5 million AAV) this upcoming season that he inked last October. Much of the conversation around that contract has been about whether or not McDavid will stay in Edmonton when it expires at the end of the 2027-28 NHL season.
That is a valid question, as McDavid has shown an intense desire to win, and the Oilers hit a bit of a snag in that department after bowing out of the first round in last year’s playoffs. However, the destination of McDavid’s next contract has distracted from what that deal could potentially look like.
If we are to assume that he will re-sign with the Oilers, what kind of money will McDavid be asking for? There are a few things to consider when thinking about the specifics of his next contract…
Summer of spending
This summer has seen a lot of young players cash in on record-breaking contracts, and you’ve got to imagine that McDavid will be looking for quite the raise after giving Edmonton a discount on his current deal.
Macklin Celebrini became the NHL’s highest-paid player after inking a five-year contract extension that carries an $18.8-million cap hit last month. That beat out Leo Carlsson, who briefly held the record with an $18-million cap hit from an offer sheet that he inked earlier in the summer as well. Both of those players aren’t even 22 yet and haven’t accomplished nearly as much as McDavid has over his career.
It’s a bit shocking to see that McDavid is now ninth in the league when it comes to highest-paid players. He isn’t even the highest paid on the Oilers, as Draisaitl’s $14-million cap hit has him beat.
It’s time that the Oilers captain cashes in on his next deal, and this summer has significantly raised the bar. When McDavid enters negotiations for his next contract, the absolute floor for the cap hit should come in at Celebrini’s $18.8 million, no matter the term.
Rising cap
The NHL’s salary cap is set to rise quite a bit in the coming years, which will have a direct impact on how much McDavid will make on his next contract.
According to league rules, the maximum cap hit that a player can have is 20 per cent of the salary cap ceiling the year the contract comes into effect.
Heading into this upcoming season, the cap ceiling is set at $104 million, which means that the maximum amount of salary that a player can make in one year is $20.8 million. Nobody in the NHL has hit that maximum amount, but that could change very soon.
The cap is projected to rise to $113.5 million for the 2027-28 season, and some early estimates think it could get as high as $123 million for the 2028-29 season, which would be the first year of McDavid’s next contract.
With that in mind, the maximum cap hit that McDavid could have on his next contract is expected to be in the range of $24.6 million.
Where does this land?
It feels fair to assume that McDavid will not be giving Edmonton the grace of a massive discount once again when negotiating his next contract.
A safe range for McDavid’s next cap hit to land at would be above Celebrini at $19 million all the way up to the max amount of $24.6 million.
It’d be easy for the Oilers captain to simply demand a max contract on a long-term deal, which would total up to a seven-year, $172.2-million deal, easily the biggest in NHL history. Edmonton would likely rush to get that signed, but that doesn’t seem like McDavid’s style.
McDavid has signed two post-ELC contracts in his NHL career and has given Edmonton a discount both times, and he may very well do the same thing on this next deal if the Oilers can prove they are in a position to be successful. It probably won’t be a massive discount like this current deal, but it may still be below his full market value.
With all that to consider, something along the lines of a seven-year deal with a $22-million cap hit ($154 million in total) seems to hit the sweet spot for a player like McDavid. It nearly doubles his current cap hit, should make him the highest-paid player in the league, and would put all the speculation about his next contract to rest for quite some time.
A lot can change between now and then, but right now, it appears McDavid is on pace to break new ground with his next contract, no matter where he signs it.