A 'super' El Niño forecast for Alberta this winter may be very disruptive | Daily Hive

A 'super' El Niño forecast for Alberta this winter could be seriously disruptive

Volodymyr TVERDOKHLIB/Shutterstock

Every couple of years or so, surface waters along the equator in the Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than usual.

These events, known as El Niño, vary in strength and are classified according to the amount of warming in the region. According to Bill Merryfield, a research scientist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), an El Niño is on its way, and this coming event has the potential to become one of the strongest ever observed.

A “super El Niño,” as these very strong events are sometimes called, occurs when the warming exceeds 2°C. However, this time, Merryfield said warming in the equatorial Pacific could exceed 3°C.

“This event is shaping up as potentially being stronger than anything that’s been observed in at least the last 100 years,” Merryfield said.

Very strong El Niño events have occurred approximately once every 10 to 20 years in recent history. The most recent developed in 2015 and continued into the winter of 2016, but the coming event has “significant” potential to surpass even the strongest events on record.

What this means for Alberta and this winter

While our neighbours to the west in B.C. are facing an exceptionally mild winter, Alberta is expected to experience similar effects.

“The strongest impacts tend to be in the western provinces,” Merryfield said. “For these very strong El Niños, at least, the warming has extended really from coast to coast.”

ECCC

Average temperatures in Alberta are projected to be approximately 2°C warmer than usual this winter, and similar to what occurred during previous super El Niños. But temperatures could be even milder when you consider Canada’s broader long-term warming trend.

Merryfield expects the effects to be fairly similar across Alberta. In addition to warmer temperatures, El Niño events also tend to bring less winter precipitation than usual to areas around the Rocky Mountains, although the trend is less pronounced than the effect on temperatures, he explained.

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But the combination of an unusually warm winter and spring and potential for less winter precipitation could mean an abnormally low mountain snowpack. Warmer conditions could also cause the snowpack to melt earlier in the spring.

And while some of us may be looking forward to warmer, drier conditions after an exceptionally soggy summer (looking at you, Edmonton), it’s not great news for regions of Alberta already facing drought conditions.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

“[It] could factor into drought conditions next spring and summer, unless rainfall during that period makes up the difference,” Merryfield said.

When can we expect to start feeling the effects of a super El Niño in Alberta?

Well, warming in the equatorial Pacific typically peaks around December, which is also when significant El Niño impacts begin appearing in Canada. Because this event looks likely to be extraordinarily strong, however, its influence could begin in late fall.

Looking ahead to 2027, Merryfield explained the El Niño could also help push global temperatures to a new record.

“El Niños tend to release heat that’s been stored in the ocean back into the atmosphere,” he said.

Combined with the long-term warming caused by greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere, Merryfield said it appears very likely that 2027 will break the global temperature record set following the previous El Niño in 2024.

So, with a warmer winter, reduced snowpack, and another possible global temperature record ahead, it appears we could be heading for even more unusual weather in the months ahead.