Oilers remain Stanley Cup favourites despite slow start
The Edmonton Oilers may be off to a slow start to the season, but at least one analytics model still gives them the best chance to win this year’s Stanley Cup.
As the team returns home from their first road trip of the season, Edmonton holds a record of 2-4-0 and has just four points through the first six games. This puts the team second-last in the Pacific Division and 29th in the entire NHL.
Surprisingly, that is still a better start for the Oilers than last season, which saw the team go 1-4-1 to start the season and still make it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. While repeating the poor start may not be the best idea, analytics website MoneyPuck is not getting fooled this time around.
As of Sunday, they gave the Oilers an 11.5% chance of raising Lord Stanley at the end of the season, making them the only team to dip into double digits. The next closest was the Dallas Stars at 9.7%.
Playoff odds as of Sunday https://t.co/RbnckCLHNP pic.twitter.com/wAVYCmRKBO
— MoneyPuck.com (@MoneyPuckdotcom) October 20, 2024
MoneyPuck has an extensive model that goes into calculating these odds. This includes a robust game prediction model that considers several variables and up-to-date tracked analytics from each team.
While the Oilers haven’t been the sharpest team to begin the new season, they have a few positive signs. Firstly, you can never count out a team that boasts as powerful an offence as Edmonton with the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the way. Secondly, the team’s shooting percentage is currently abnormally low and near the bottom of the league. That stat usually sees some regression to the mean as the season goes on.
Edmonton is also dead-last in goals-scored-above-expected, which shows that they are getting plenty of good chances on opposing goaltenders, they just can’t find a way to score. With so much offensive talent on the roster, that is bound to change at some point.
However, nothing in this league is guaranteed and the Oilers have plenty of work to do if they want to continue to be considered Stanley Cup favourites.
We’ll see if they can dig themselves out of this early hole for a second straight season.