4 Oilers who could face regression this upcoming season
The hopes are high for the Edmonton Oilers heading into the 2024-25 NHL season, but there should be a hint of cautious optimism as well.
With the painful loss of Game 7 still firmly in the memory of the Oilers faithful, the trend leading up to this new season has tended to skew toward the positive. A bevy of solid new additions to the team and a hunger stronger than ever from the team’s best players have many thinking Edmonton could very well come out of the west on top.
That line of thinking is completely justifiable, but it also tends to ignore that a few players on this team had exceptionally strong seasons last year and it will be tough to replicate those numbers this time around.
This doesn’t mean that the players on this list will have bad years, but rather that they are at risk of seeing some regression. A perfect example of this is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins going from 104 points in 2022-23 to just 67 points last year.
If this is a bit too negative for you, Daily Hive did a similar list for four Oilers primed to have bounce-back seasons as well.
Without further ado, here are four Oilers who could be in line for some regression this year.
1. Zach Hyman
Nobody had Zach Hyman joining the 50-goal club and dropping an astounding 16 goals in the postseason last season.
It was a season that absolutely destroyed his previous career-highs and put him on the radar as one of the most productive wingers in the entire NHL. All this was accomplished during a period of his career when a decline was expected, but Hyman defied the odds and put up sparkling numbers at the age of 31.
There is no question he fits his role on this Oilers team like a glove, but even the most optimistic Oilers fans will admit that expecting another 50-goal season from Hyman is unreasonable.
2. Mattias Ekholm
While Mattias Ekholm didn’t blow up his career-highs like Hyman did, the veteran Swede followed the trend of breaking new ground despite being 32 for the majority of last season.
He had 45 points in the regular season, one-upping a previous career-high set in 2018-19 and added 10 more in the Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final. It was a great offensive season for a player who is usually noticed for his defensive work.
While another offensive outburst is possible when playing on a top pair with Evan Bouchard, it’s more likely that he will fall back into his usual range of 30-35 points next season.
3. Adam Henrique
One of the more under-the-radar players last season was Adam Henrique, who managed to put up 24 goals and 51 points last season split between the Anaheim Ducks and Oilers.
Those are some impressive numbers for the 34-year-old and the one up from his career-high in points. Age is a factor of course when it comes to regression, but the fact that he won’t be getting the top-line minutes and PP time he did in Anaheim will also cut into his totals.
Henrique will be a bottom-six player for the Oilers this season and while he should do just fine in that role, another 20-plus goal season would be surprising.
4. Evander Kane
It’s been a rough few seasons for Evander Kane when it comes to injuries, but despite that, he still managed 24 goals and 44 points last season.
Things won’t be getting much easier for the Vancouver native as he is expected to miss the start of training camp and potentially the season with a sports hernia injury that may require surgery.
Even if he comes back healthy, a top-six spot on this team is no longer guaranteed with the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. All this points to Kane coming in well under the totals he managed last season.