Oilers should end the Connor Brown experiment
The Edmonton Oilers have played 26 games this season, and their premier offseason addition has just one point.
When GM Ken Holland signed Connor Brown to a bonus-laden one-year deal over the summer, there was some risk to it. The 29-year-old was coming off a torn ACL that limited him to just four games with the Washington Capitals last season. There was no guarantee that he would be able to return to the perennial 30-point scorer that he once was.
However, Holland decided to hedge his bets and signed the former Erie Otter to a cheap $775,000 with a lucrative $3.225 million bonus if he plays in at least 10 games. The thought was that Brown could rebound while playing with one of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
That hasn’t been the case.
No words needed. https://t.co/7AOC4o9UI4 pic.twitter.com/o11EijWAcj
— Andy & Rono (@ARHockeyStats) December 10, 2023
Brown has now doubled the performance requirements for his bonus, playing in 20 games with the Oilers this season, and only has one assist to show for it. This is despite most of his time playing in the top six with McDavid and Draisaitl. While it certainly looks like he is giving it his all out there, not even the team’s current eight-game winning streak has been kind to Brown.
Most recently, Brown has been playing on the Oilers’ second line with Leon Draisaitl and Evander Kane. The results over the past eight games, despite the victories, have not looked good for the trio, especially Brown.
According to analytics website Natural Stat Trick, the line has spent 81 minutes together at five-on-five since November 24. Over that time, they have leaked chances against with a high-danger chances-for percentage (HDCF%) of 45.45 and have a poor expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) of 40.30.
In the 15:22 that Draisaitl and Kane have played without Brown during that time, the HDCF% skyrockets to 71.43 and an xGF% of 73.16. Now, that is a small sample size, but it’s at least a bit of an indication that Brown is dragging that second line.
The Oilers have given this Brown experiment a good 20-game run, and it looks like it is only hurting them. The team has been able to find success despite the struggles of the second line, but the Oilers should be finding ways to fix that line to become even better, not simply tread water until it comes back to haunt them.
Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch did make a change late in Tuesday’s win against the Chicago Blackhawks, sending both Kane and Brown to the third line, with Warren Foegele and Mattias Janmark coming up to the second line. Whether that sticks is not certain, but it doesn’t feel like a long-term fix.
The team will also be forced to do something when Dylan Holloway returns from injury, and touching the team’s fourth line, which has been very good recently, would not be a great idea.
The $3.225 million bonus will be paid out and added to the Oilers’ cap next season; that ship has already sailed. At this point, would sending Brown to the AHL to see if he can get his game back be that bad of an idea? The team already did it with goaltender Jack Campbell earlier this season.
There are internal solutions that could help fill in Brown’s absence. One intriguing name is Raphael Lavoie, who got some NHL time earlier this season but never got a shot on any of the Oilers’ skill lines. He’s a sniper and goal-scorer by nature and has been scoring buckets in the AHL; why not give him a try?
Maybe Holloway can spend some time with Draisaitl. Warren Foegele has had recent success playing in the top six as well.
No matter who the Oilers decide to run with on the second line, it has become clear that Brown is not that guy right now.
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