Analytics site projects Oilers as having second-best Stanley Cup chance

Jan 20 2023, 6:12 pm

The Edmonton Oilers haven’t firmly fixed themselves within the playoff picture, but that’s not stopping one analytics site from trumpeting the team’s potential.

Stanley Cup potential, that is.

Analytics site MoneyPuck has slotted the Oilers with the second-best likelihood to lift hockey’s Holy Grail, giving the five-time champion club from Edmonton a 9.9% shot at winning the Cup. Only the Carolina Hurricanes, who bested the Oilers in the 2006 Stanley Cup Final, has better odds at 10.6%.

MoneyPuck odds 2 - January 20, 2022

MoneyPuck

MoneyPuck runs “a simulation of the rest of the NHL season 100,000 times we can create precise probabilities of the outcome of the season for each team,” according to its site.

Their odds have spiked, having just a 2.5% chance to win earlier this month.

Edmonton has a 94.5% chance of making the playoffs, a 56.5% roll at advancing beyond the first round, and a 19.4% likelihood of making it to the Stanley Cup Final.

The Oilers awoke Friday with a hold on the fourth spot in the Pacific Division with a 26-18-3 record for 55 points and a .585 winning percentage. Those figures slot them 13th-best league-wide, and firmly fix the group in the first wild card into the playoffs from the Western Conference.

It also places them just one point back of the Los Angeles Kings for third in the Pacific with an even amount of games played, and three back of both the Seattle Kraken and Vegas Golden Knights for tops in the division — though Seattle has played two fewer games and Vegas has one less skate to date.

Edmonton, who will be represented by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Stuart Skinner in the 2023 NHL All-Star Game, boasts the second-best goal differential in the division at +20, and own the NHL’s top power play at 30.6%.

MoneyPuck odds 1 - January 20, 2022

MoneyPuck.com

The Oilers also have the league’s top two point-getters.

McDavid is the runaway favourite for the Art Ross Trophy as the league’s top scorer, as well as the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the circuit’s top goal-getter with 39 goals and 86 points. Draisaitl sits second with 72 points (27 goals, 45 assists).

Edmonton sits with the best odds of any Canadian team to bring the Cup back north of the border for the first time since 1993.

The Calgary Flames are second with a 7.9% chance, and the Winnipeg Jets are third among Canadian clubs at 6.9%, slightly ahead of the Toronto Maple Leafs at 6.2%. The Ottawa Senators are listed at a 0.3% chance, and both the Vancouver Canucks and Montreal Canadiens register a 0% likelihood.

Hereā€™s how the Oilers rank among their NHL competitors, counting teams with a 1% chance or higher to win the championship this season:

  1. Carolina Hurricanes, 10.6%
  2. Edmonton Oilers, 9.9%
  3. Boston Bruins, 9.5%
  4. New Jersey Devils, 8.6%
  5. Calgary Flames, 7.9%
  6. Tampa Bay Lightning, 7.6%
  7. Winnipeg Jets, 6.9%
  8. Toronto Maple Leafs, 6.2%
  9. Washington Capitals, 5.7%
  10. Seattle Kraken, 4.5%
  11. Dallas Stars, 4.2%
  12. Florida Panthers, 3.9%
  13. Minnesota Wild, 3.5%
  14. Colorado Avalanche, 3.3%
  15. Vegas Golden Knights, 2.5%
  16. Los Angeles Kings, 1.8%

Aaron VickersAaron Vickers

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