Analytics site gives Leafs best chance to win 2023 Stanley Cup

Despite last night’s shootout loss, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been generally rolling along this season.

After a slow start to the year, they’ve gone 18-4-5 since November 1 and look very much like the regular season juggernaut they’ve come to be known as over the last few seasons.

They’ve made the playoffs six years in a row and are well on their way to clinching their seventh consecutive playoff berth in due time.

But for whatever reason, they’ve been unable to pull it together come postseason time.

It’s been 18 years now since the Leafs have won a playoff round, and 56 since they’ve won the Stanley Cup. Those 13 championships in franchise history mean little to generations of fans who have only known heartbreak and disappointment.

Regardless, popular hockey analytics site MoneyPuck currently has the Leafs with the best odds to win the Stanley Cup this season.

Here’s how the Leafs rank amongst their NHL competitors, counting teams with a 1% chance or higher to win the championship this season:

• Toronto Maple Leafs, 8.90%
• Carolina Hurricanes, 8.80%
• Boston Bruins, 8.60%
• Tampa Bay Lightning, 8.30%
• Minnesota Wild, 7.70%
• New Jersey Devils, 7.50%
• Calgary Flames, 7.30%
• Vegas Golden Knights, 6.90%
• Seattle Kraken, 6.70%
• Washington Capitals, 6%
• Los Angeles Kings, 4.50%
• Colorado Avalanche, 3.50%
• Winnipeg Jets, 2.90%
• Dallas Stars, 2.60%
• Edmonton Oilers, 2.50%
• New York Islanders, 1.40%
• Pittsburgh Penguins. 1.10%
• New York Rangers, 1%
• Nashville Predators, 1%

Three Canadian teams: Vancouver (0.0), Montreal (0.0), and Ottawa (0.6) have virtually impossible odds to come back and win the Stanley Cup this season, barring one of the most miraculous turnarounds in NHL history.

The Leafs certainly have the collection of talent to win the Stanley Cup, evidenced by the fact they’ve got the league’s fourth-highest points total and third-best points percentage.

They’ve got a dynamic goaltending duo of Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray, top-line talents in Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, and a career year underway from William Nylander, who’s leading the team in both goals (22) and points (45).

Of course, if history’s shown anything, high expectations for the Leafs mean little until they’re able to prove it come playoff time.

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