What the next three months of weather deep into winter looks like in Alberta
Shots of snow made their way into much of Alberta in October, and if you’re hoping for a tame start to winter, a new weather outlook will likely please you.
Late last month, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) released its three-month temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts, which cover the period between November 2026 and January 2027.
The three-month seasonal outlook is pushed out by ECCC at the end of each month and looks at meteorological trends for the current season.
It’s important to note that while the outlooks do offer what Alberta can expect temperature- and precipitation-wise, they do not identify any significant weather events, such as storms.
According to the forecast models, temperature trends are looking pretty toasty across Canada over the next three months, with most regions, including Alberta, projected to see a decent probability of above-average warmth.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Based on the ECCC’s first map, northern Alberta and the Rockies currently have the highest probability of seeing above-normal temperatures from October through December, in the 70 to 100 per cent range. Both the Edmonton and Calgary regions are in the 60 to 70 per cent range.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
In the second map, models predict that much of Alberta, including areas like Edmonton, Calgary, Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, Lloydminster, Red Deer, and Grande Prairie, has a 20 to 30 per cent chance of seeing near-normal temperatures during this three-month period.
Sections of northern Alberta and the Rockies have a forecast probability of temperature near normal of zero to 20 per cent, highlighting the strong signal for much of the province to likely see warmer than normal weather over the next three months.
Looking at the precipitation probabilities from November to January, all of Alberta has a chance of seeing below-normal precipitation, with the strongest signal along the Rockies, followed by the Foothills. Not good news for those who love skiing and snowboarding as the season progresses.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Speaking to Daily Hive late last month for the Alberta November forecast, Brian Proctor, a meteorologist with ECCC, stated something similar to what the long-range maps are hinting at. The strong El Niño is expected to play a bigger role in Alberta’s weather as winter progresses, but its most significant impacts aren’t necessarily expected to arrive in November.
“Really, what’s happening is El Niño and its impacts are coming towards us, but we have to really get further into the winter before we can really see the significant impacts,” Proctor stated.
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You can view all of the forecast maps issued by ECCC online.
Are you looking forward to how the forecast for the next few months for Alberta is shaping up this winter? Let us know in the comments.