Winter weather will smack Alberta soon and the forecast is not pretty

The start of February has been stunning for much of Alberta, but a return to more typical winter weather is lurking, and the forecast is not so cute.

After numerous areas in the province saw daytime high temperatures fall earlier this month and above-average temperatures stick around, a deep freeze and the chance of snow are on deck.

Daily Hive caught up with Justin Shelley, meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), on what Albertans should expect as winter weather returns to the province.

Alberta’s luck with tepid temperatures has run out, and Shelley says the province is going to be seeing a larger-scale weather pattern change compared to what we’ve been experiencing since the end of January.

He says an upper ridge of high pressure has been predominant over the region of the western part of the continent for the last couple of weeks, which is going to slump south over the coming days.

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An upper-level trough will then move in, and an Arctic ridge at the surface is going to bring those colder temperatures back down into Alberta.

In terms of how cold it’s going to get, Shelley said that it looks like the northern portions of the province are going to be colder than the south, and by early next week, those temperatures in the far north of the province could be back into the minus 20s.

Temperatures around the Edmonton area will be somewhere in the minus teens, while Calgary will stay a bit warmer but dipping below the freezing mark early next week and dropping as next week progresses.

If you aren’t a fan of the colder temperatures, you probably should start looking at booking a tropical vacation if you can.

Current indications are showing that the colder pattern will likely stay through the end of February and possibly extend into early March; however, Shelley cautioned that confidence lowers the farther out in time you go.

When is snow expected to show up in the forecast for parts of Alberta?

In addition to the return of cold temperatures, Shelley noted that there is a system being signalled across the northern plains of the U.S., which would give some snowfall across the Prairies early next week.

As of writing, the highest impact of snowfall looks to be in the southeastern portion of Alberta and across the rest of the southern Prairies. That being said, some snowfall is expected in other areas of the province; however, the total will be on the lower end.

A couple of centimetres of snow is in the cards for both Edmonton and Calgary on Monday night into Tuesday, and on the higher end, models say upwards of five to 10 centimetres could fall.

“But again, there’s a lot of uncertainty with the system developing, and a lot of discrepancies between the different forecast models. So it’s been hard to pin down at this point, but as the week and the weekend progress, we will likely get a better handle on that system and snowfall amounts.”

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As we enjoy the final days of warmer temperatures in Alberta for a while, Shelley added that now is the time to prepare for what is on the way.

“Hopefully, everybody didn’t put away their winter gear — their snow shovels — because we are still in February on the prairies, and we do see these warm-up periods periodically through the winter period. That might give a bit of false hope in terms of the beginning of spring, but winter is returning,” Shelley said.

“Prepare for some adverse travel conditions, likely some issues on the roadways when we do get that snowfall, and those temperatures dip well below the freezing mark for a persistent period of time. Just expect to return to our regularly scheduled winter conditions across the province.”

Looking at the seven-day forecasts for Edmonton and Calgary, the dip in temperatures on the way is very apparent, along with the risk of snow during the overnight hours of Monday, Feb. 16 and Tuesday, Feb. 17 in both cities.

Edmonton forecast

If you were curious about how our averages for this time of year shake out for YEG and YYC, according to ECCC, the average high for Edmonton around this time of year is -4°C, while the average low is -13°C.

Calgary forecast

The average high for Calgary around this time of year is zero, while the average low is -12°C.