What the next three months of summer weather looks like in Alberta
After a soggy and chilly end to May and start to June, many of us have our fingers crossed that summer will be a beauty for Alberta.
Over the weekend, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) released its three-month temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts, which cover the period between June and August 2026.
The three-month seasonal outlook is pushed out by ECCC at the end of each month and looks at meteorological trends for the current season.
It’s important to note that while the outlooks do offer what Alberta can expect temperature- and precipitation-wise, they do not identify any significant weather events, such as storms.
According to the forecast models, temperature trends will vary slightly across Canada over the next three months, with most regions, including Alberta, projected to see above-average warmth.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Based on the ECCC’s first map, northern Alberta currently has the highest probability of seeing above normal temperatures this summer, in the 80 to 90 per cent range. The Edmonton region is in the 60 to 70 per cent range, while the Calgary region straddles the 40 to 50 per cent and 50 to 60 per cent range.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
In the second graph, models predict that much of Alberta, including areas like Edmonton, Calgary, Red Deer, Medicine Hat, and Lethbridge, has a 20 to 40 per cent chance of seeing near-normal temperatures during this three-month period. Northern Alberta has a lower chance, just between 10 and 20 per cent.
Looking at the precipitation probabilities from June to August, much of Alberta has no clear signals, apart from a section of northwestern Alberta, which may have a 40 to 50 per cent chance of being below normal.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Speaking to Daily Hive late last month for the Alberta June forecast, ECCC Warning Preparedness Meteorologist Alysa Pederson added that when it comes to precipitation over the summer months, thunderstorm activity can really change the data. Localized precipitation may spike in certain areas due to a downpour, making the prediction of how much rain areas may get tricky.
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Pederson also added that some things that should be top of mind for Albertans as we head into June are the severe weather risk increasing into the summer months and the increased impacts from potential heat events.
Having a way to get alerts when ECCC sends out severe thunderstorm or even tornado warnings is paramount, as is preparing oneself to not see impacts of things like heat illness during extended stretches of warmer temperatures.
You can view all of the forecast maps issued by ECCC online.
Are you looking forward to how the early summer forecast for Alberta is shaping up? Let us know in the comments.