Here's what the next three months of spring weather may look like in Alberta
After a blast of snow for much of Alberta to end February, many Albertans may be anxious about how the weather is looking for the spring season.
Environment and Climate Change Canada’s (ECCC) latest temperature and precipitation probabilistic forecasts for the March to May 2026 timeframe were released late last month, allowing for an early peek at how the upcoming months of spring weather may shake out.
The three-month seasonal outlook is pushed out by ECCC at the end of each month and looks at meteorological trends for the current season.
Daily Hive spoke with Brian Proctor, a meteorologist with ECCC, about what weather Albertans may see over the next three months, starting with precipitation across the province.
Environment and Climate Change Canada
From March to May, Proctor says heavier precipitation is trending for northern and western Alberta, with the forecast probability of precipitation map showing the risk of above normal hugging the Rockies right down to the U.S. border.
Snow is likely at some of the higher elevations, allowing for more snowpack to pile up there. The lower elevation areas are at a much lower risk of seeing snow as we move through the months, likely coming down as rain or mixed rain and snow as we move from March into April.
“Probably most of the Boreal forest is likely to see that better chance of enhanced precipitation,” Proctor said, with Edmonton and areas to its west being right on the edge of that signal.
For Calgary and southern Alberta, it’s shaping up to be normal to below normal precipitation, a story that has shown up for large chunks of the winter so far for those areas.
When it comes to the temperature outlook, a trend of below normal temperatures has shown up for northern Alberta and stretches really across the northern Prairies and into the Yukon and Northwest Territories.
A strip of central Alberta is looking at average temperatures, while southern Alberta and the Rockies are eyeing a 40 to 60 per cent probability of being above normal.
Proctor also cautioned that when it comes to colder-than-normal temperatures for parts of Alberta, they’re more likely to occur later in the spring than earlier and, in general terms, become more expansive and extensive as spring progresses.
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For cold-weather events to become more expansive and extensive, he added that it’s indicative of what the flow of loft is doing in the atmosphere.
“What we need to get cooler temperatures is more of a circulation from the Arctic to dominate over a circulation coming up from the south. So it likely means that we’re going to be seeing more cold, low kind of situations as you move through the spring over northern portions of Alberta, as opposed to affecting areas further to the south.”
Environment and Climate Change Canada
The weather trends for this spring in Alberta are also fairly typical of a non-La NiƱa, non-El NiƱo cycle, with pretty neutral atmospheric conditions where other sorts of circulations tend to take over and dominate.
“It does suggest that a stronger sort of circulation coming out of the Arctic and coming in is likely happening, but it’s really not being sort of amplified or even sort of depressed by a La NiƱa or an El NiƱo signature as well.”
Proctor added that, as we are trending towards cooler conditions and the probability that northern and western Alberta will see more precipitation over the next few months, Albertans should be prepared for some “changeable weather” in case there are instances where the cooler conditions are more widespread.
If you were curious about the short-range and how the forecast for March is shaping up for Alberta, we got the scoop on what Albertans should expect.
You can view the full probabilistic forecasts issued by ECCC online.