After Monday night’s dramatic 3-2 shootout loss to the Nashville Predators, the Calgary Flames have officially found themselves out of playoff contention.

The pill was tough to swallow for fans who expected much more out of their team. To make matters worse, the Flames are also out of the running for the first overall pick in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft. That means that it is a certainty that Calgary will be unable to draft generational talent Connor Bedard.

While in other years, teams that barely missed the playoffs would have had a low chance of picking first, they now have no chance.

That’s because the NHL changed the draft lottery system heading into the 2023 NHL Draft. Now, teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots in the draft. There are two lotteries held, one for the first overall pick and the other for the second.

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If the Flames remain in 18th place in the league-wide standings, as they are now by points percentage, the best draft pick the Flames could win in the May 8 lottery is fifth overall. But the chances of that occurring are 0.8%. The most likely scenario (97.9%) is that Calgary’s first-round pick will be somewhere around 15th overall.

Not great odds (Tankathon.com)

So, while it pays to have a great record or a very poor one, a mediocre season can hurt more than anything.

With that said, picking 15th is by no means bad. Notable players who’ve been selected in that position over the years include Joe Sakic, Mike Bossy, and Erik Karlsson.

And with this year’s draft class expected to hold a deep talent pool, there’s no reason Calgary can’t pick themselves a hidden gem.