Flames somehow still a Stanley Cup favourite according to analytics site
The Calgary Flames aren’t just in the thick of it.
Turns out, they’re heavyweight contenders.
That is, of course, if they get into the dance first.
Because if they do, the Flames have a top-five shot at hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup this spring, according to popular analytics site MoneyPuck.
MoneyPuck gives the Flames a 7.3% chance at winning the Stanley Cup, slotting right in the middle of a Canadian contingent that features the Toronto Maple Leafs at 9.9% and the Winnipeg Jets at 6.8%. Each has over a 90% shot at qualifying for the playoffs, with the Flames having the lowest — significantly — of any team with at least a 4% shot at hockey’s Holy Grail at just 73.8%.
MoneyPuck
By comparison, The Athletic slots the Saddledome-dweller’s Cup aspirations at 15th-best with a 3% shot and a playoff likelihood of 65%.
Calgary is projected to be the only team of the bunch to net fewer than triple digits when it comes to points, too, according to MoneyPuck.
“By running a simulation of the rest of the NHL season 100,000 times we can create precise probabilities of the outcome of the season for each team,” MoneyPuck details on its site. “Each game is simulated using the probabilities from the pre-game prediction model discussed below. For games further into the future, the model scores are regressed to the mean to account for uncertainty.”
There’s some significant work to do to even get to a sniff of MoneyPucks’ 96.7-point projection.
The Flames awoke Friday, after coughing up a two-goal, third-period lead to division rival Vegas Golden Knights, with 66 points through 59 games by way of a 27-20-12 record for a .559 points percentage. That pace would see them land at 92 points, rounding up, should it hold.
Third in the Pacific Division has averaged 98.0 over the same frame, including a low of 93 in 18-19. https://t.co/XLZm5EgGXb
— Aaron Vickers (@AAVickers) February 10, 2023
Worse, it’d have them on the outside looking in when the regular season completes.
The West’s wild card entries have averaged 96.7 points and 93.3 points, respectively, in the seven full seasons under the current playoff format. Third in the Pacific Division has averaged 98.0 points, too.
Calgary sits one point back of the defending Stanley Cup champion, the Colorado Avalanche, for the second wild card into the playoffs from the West, with Colorado having four — yes, four — games at hand. The Flames are also four points back of the Seattle Kraken for the first wild card, with Seattle having played one fewer game.
The Nashville Predators, who are directly behind Calgary, trail the Flames by four points with three games at hand.
The Pacific Division picture doesn’t look any more welcoming.
Calgary slots fifth, and trails the third-place Los Angeles Kings and second-place Edmonton Oilers, who have the second-best Stanley Cup odds overall, by six points through an even 59-game slate. Those Golden Knights, who sit atop the Pacific, have created a nine-point gap on the Flames by way of the extra point in Thursday night’s rally with one fewer game played.
An uphill battle for sure, for a Flames group who undoubtedly feels they can make noise come playoff time. MoneyPuck agrees.
They just have to get there first.
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