How low can they go? Flames' draft lottery odds nearly set

They still have two games remaining in their schedule, but the Calgary Flames’ draft lottery odds are close to being decided.

Last week, the Flames were likely to finish in one of five spots, ranging from 24th to 28th, in the NHL standings. They’ve since won three of four games, which means they will no longer be able to drop lower than 25th. They currently sit 24th with 79 points on the season.

NHL.com

Rather surprisingly, the Flames have closed the gap between themselves and the New Jersey Devils, and are now guaranteed to finish the season in one of three spots between 23rd and 25th place. They would need to pick up three points to surpass the Devils, who hold the tiebreaker with 33 regulation wins. On the flip side, they would need to finish with fewer points than the Seattle Kraken to fall behind them.

Regardless of how the standings play out in these final few games, the odds are in the Flames’ favour that they will have a top-10 pick in the upcoming draft. If they remain in 24th, they have a 64.4% chance of selecting ninth overall. A shot at the first overall pick is slim, but not impossible, at 5%.

Tankathon

Should the Flames fall behind the Kraken, they will have a 54.4% chance of picking eighth overall, while their shot at the first-overall selection would increase slightly to 6%. If they manage to surpass the Devils, they’ll have a 73.3% chance at selecting 10th, with their shot at the first pick dropping to 3.5%.

The consensus first-overall pick heading into this year’s draft is 17-year-old Macklin Celebrini, who is coming off of a 32-goal, 64-point freshman season with Boston University. He is viewed as a cornerstone piece who has the talent to singlehandedly change the direction of whichever team can land him.

If the Flames do pick from the 8-10 range, which is the most likely scenario, many believe they will take Tij Iginla, the son of Jarome. He is currently ranked ninth amongst North American skaters heading into the draft after a 47-goal, 84-point season with the Kelowna Rockets of the WHL.

Both the Flames and Kraken are in action tonight, with the Flames set to take on the Vancouver Canucks while the Kraken are going up against the Winnipeg Jets. A Flames win paired with a Kraken loss would mean that the Flames would no longer have a chance to fall to 25th in the standings.

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